Activity records quickest expansion in one year in Q2 2023

GDP growth accelerated to 3.8% year on year in the second quarter, from 3.7% in the first quarter. Q2's reading marked the best result since Q2 2022. Household spending sped up to 4.1% year on year in the second quarter, which marked the best reading since Q2 2022 (Q1: +3.2% yoy). Government consumption improved to a 15.5% expansion in Q2 (Q1: +11.6% yoy). Meanwhile, fixed investment growth accelerated to 6.9% in Q2, from the 6.5% expansion logged in the previous quarter. On the external front, exports of goods and services worsened, contracting 4.6% in Q2 (Q1: +2.4% yoy). Conversely, imports of goods and services rebounded, growing 3.6% in Q2 (Q1: -0.3% yoy).

Guatemala's GDP growth will accelerate in 2024 to 3.3%, from an estimated 3% in 2023, owing in part to a gradual recovery in the US economy in the second half of next year. The US is the country's biggest export market and primary source of workers' remittances (an important driver of private consumption).”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Guatemalan imports projections for the next ten years from a panel of 6 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable imports forecast available for Guatemalan imports.

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