Lithuania: Economic growth picks up in the second quarter of 2026
GDP reading: Lithuania’s GDP increased 3.8% in seasonally and calendar-adjusted annual terms in Q2, following a 2.8% expansion in the prior quarter. Q2’s reading was the strongest since Q4 2024. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic output increased 1.7% in Q2, following a 0.1% contraction in the prior quarter.
Household consumption and capital outlays support acceleration: Compared with the previous quarter’s data, readings in Q2 improved for private consumption (+4.1% in annual terms vs +3.4% in Q1), fixed investment (+7.3% vs +0.2% in Q1), exports of goods and services (+5.2% vs +4.2% in Q1) and imports of goods and services (+8.4% vs +4.9% in Q1). In contrast, the reading for government consumption worsened in Q2 (+0.2% vs +0.6% in Q1).
Panelist insight: Swedbank’s Greta Ilekyté commented:
“Economic growth is expected to slow in the second half of the year. The temporary lift from pension withdrawals will fade, while higher inflation weighs on real purchasing power growth—pointing to weaker consumption ahead.”
EIU analysts said:
“Real GDP is forecast to rise by 2.3% in 2026, a slower pace to the expansion of 2.9% in 2025. […] Inflation will soar above the ECB’s 2.0% target, eating away into the size of real wage increases. Indicators of consumer confidence have also deteriorated since the start of the Iran war, which we expect to translate into more conservative spending. Government consumption growth will continue as more funding is shifted to the defence sector to bolster the country’s protections against Russia. Efforts to equip the defence sector will help to underpin investment growth.”