Economic Growth in Angola
The economy of Angola recorded an average growth rate of 0.5% in the decade to 2022, below the 3.0% average for Sub-Saharan Africa. In 2022, real GDP growth was 3.0%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Angola GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Angola from 2014 to 2023.
Source: Macrobond.
Angola GDP Data
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | -0.7 | -5.6 | 1.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
Economic Growth (GDP Oil, ann. var. %) | -6.5 | -6.7 | -11.5 | 0.5 | -2.4 |
GDP (USD bn) | 82.8 | 55.0 | 71.4 | 113.3 | 89.8 |
GDP (AOA bn) | 30,330 | 31,701 | 44,536 | 52,184 | 61,993 |
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | 18.3 | 4.5 | 40.5 | 17.2 | 18.8 |
Economic Growth (GDP non-Oil, ann. var. %) | 2.2 | -5.1 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 2.3 |
Economy gains steam in the third quarter
Growth hits nine-and-a-half-year high: The economy gained traction in the third quarter, expanding 5.5% year on year, outpacing Q2’s 4.1% rise and marking the best result since Q1 2015. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic activity rebounded from Q2’s downwardly revised 0.1% decline, rising 2.9% in Q3—a near eight-year high.
Broad-based acceleration fuels momentum: The hydrocarbons sector accelerated to 3.0% yoy in Q3 from 2.6% in Q2 due to stronger oil production growth, which edged up to 1.5% in the quarter (Q2: +1.1% yoy). Similarly, non-oil output rose 6.3% year on year (Q2: +4.7% yoy), marking the best result in three years: Manufacturing output growth more than doubled from Q2, and construction activity gained steam. Further supporting momentum, agricultural output growth ticked up, as did services output, propelled by public administration plus wholesale and retail trade rising at sharper clips. Lastly, the transport sector returned to growth. All these positive developments outweighed a softer increase in the mining sector—which nonetheless rose by over 40%.
Economy to lose steam ahead: Our panelists forecast the economy to end the year on a sour note, expecting growth to have slowed sharply: Tight borrowing conditions and above-target inflation likely continued to drag on domestic demand, and maturing oil fields likely capped growth in the hydrocarbons sector. That said, economic growth will have roughly tripled from 2023 in 2024. Moving to 2025, our panel expects momentum to slow due to softer expansions in both domestic demand and exports. Higher-than-expected interest rates are a key downside risk.
Panelist insight: Oxford Economics’ Gerrit van Rooyen commented: “We expect the Angolan economy to cool moderately in […] 2025 due to a slower expansion in the oil sector, widespread drought in the southeast, and intermittent foreign exchange shortages. Elevated inflation and fiscal consolidation are also thwarting the potential for higher overall economic growth. We forecast real GDP growth to moderate from 3.4% in 2024 to 2.5% next year.”
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Angolan GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 18 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Angolan GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Angolan GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Angolan GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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