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Angola Oil

Angola Oil

Oil Production in Angola

The economy registered an average oil production of 1.49 million barrels per day in the decade to 2022. In 2022, oil production was 1.14 million barrels per day.

Angola Oil Chart

Note: This chart displays Oil Production (mn barrels per day, aop) for Angola from 2014 to 2023.
Source: EIA.

Angola Oil Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Oil Production (mn barrels per day, aop) 1.57 1.42 1.24 1.11 1.15
Brent Oil Price (USD per barrel, aop) 71.6 64.1 43.3 70.9 98.8

Angola exits OPEC; oil output dips in December

Brent crude oil prices averaged USD 77.54 per barrel in December, down 5.7% from November's price. On 29 December, the commodity traded at USD 77.69 per barrel, 3.7% lower than on the same day of the previous month. Prices have remained muted in January, dented by soft global demand and strong non-OPEC+ supply. On the production front, Angolan oil output lost momentum again in December, cooling to 1.12 million barrels per day (mbpd) from November’s 1.13 mbpd; the reading was below the 1.17 mbpd expected by the national oil firm. In other news, Angola announced its formal exit from OPEC on 21 December—effective 1 January 2024—making it the fourth country to depart from the group in the past decade. Following a downward revision of its 2024 OPEC quota to 1.11 mbpd in late November, Angola rejected the decision and stated its intention to produce more; soon after, the country went one step further and announced its exit.

Angola’s opposition to a lower 2024 quota was motivated by the necessity to attract new investments for the oil sector: Activity in the sector has been broadly downward-trending since 2016, driven by underfunding and maturing oilfields. In late 2020, the country proposed a Hydrocarbons Exploration Strategy for 2020–2025, which aims to increase exploration and investment. Bowing out from OPEC, therefore, may allow Angola to attract new funding and ramp up oil production: In December, Angola and China signed a reciprocal investment protection agreement as part of a larger push to encourage Chinese investment. Crude output in Angola is expected to tick up in 2024 year on year, well below the 1.44 mbpd average of the past decade; maturing fields are forecast to weigh on oil production.

EIU analysts commented on their outlook for Angolan oil production: “We expect further investment and exploration activity in Angola's oil sector in the coming years, particularly from China […]. On the back of increased activity at existing wells and with new wells coming on stream, we expect a gradual uptick in output, to 1.2m b/d in 2025, rising to 1.4m b/d in 2028. A major rise in activity or the discovery of a large well could prompt us to revise up our oil output forecasts.”

Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Angolan oil projections for the next ten years from a panel of 4 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable oil forecast available for Angolan oil.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Angolan oil projections.

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