Angolan oil output wanes in April

Brent crude oil prices averaged USD 88.97 per barrel in April, up 4.7% from March. On 30 April, the commodity traded at USD 87.91 per barrel, up 0.6% from 29 March. Rising tensions between Iran and Israel pushed up prices. On the production front, Angolan oil output fell to 1.07 million barrels per day (mbpd) in April from 1.13 mbpd in March. April’s reading underperformed national oil firm ANPG’s expectations of 1.13 mbpd. In other news, U.S.-based energy giant ExxonMobil recently discovered a new oil well off the coast of Angola’s Zaire province, boding well for production going forward. Moreover, the ANPG agreed to pay back the energy firm for additional research costs as part of the incremental production project, which seeks to incentivize exploration.

This year, our Consensus is for oil production to tick up from last year’s slump to 1.10 mbpd. The conclusion of extensive maintenance in the Dalia oilfield in early 2023, paired with the continued implementation of the government’s 2020-2025 Hydrogen Exploration strategy, should boost momentum in the hydrocarbons sector. Moreover, Angola’s exit from OPEC at the tail end of 2023 has driven increased investor interest in the sector, which is expected to translate into a protracted, but steady, recovery. That said, maturing oil fields will limit the gains from this fresh flexibility, with production remaining well below the prior 10-year average of 1.44 mbpd.

Analysts at the EIU commented on the outlook: “Angola's Hydrocarbons Exploration Strategy will boost the oil sector by providing tax incentives for investment and exploration. […] This will be boosted by the signing of investment agreements with the EU, which will restore the investor confidence necessary to shore up oil production.”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Angolan oil projections for the next ten years from a panel of 4 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable oil forecast available for Angolan oil.

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