Base Rate in Kazakhstan
The Base Rate ended 2022 at 16.75%, up from the 9.75% end-2021 value and above the reading of 6.50% a decade earlier. For reference, the average Base Rate in Eastern Europe was 8.40% at end-2022. For more interest rate information, visit our dedicated page.
Kazakhstan Interest Rate Chart
Note: This chart displays Policy Interest Rate (%) for Kazakhstan from 2014 to 2024.
Source: Macrobond.
Kazakhstan Interest Rate Data
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Base Rate (%, eop) | 9.25 | 9.00 | 9.75 | 16.75 | 15.75 |
Central Bank holds fire in January
Decision meets expectations: On 17 January, the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) decided to maintain the base rate at 15.25% and keep the interest-rate corridor at plus or minus 1.0 percentage point. The decision, largely priced in by markets, came on the heels of November’s 100 basis point hike and means rates remain at some of their highest levels in recent decades, albeit lower than 2022–2023’s peak levels.
Bank targets rising price pressures and weakening tenge: The Bank determined that a tight monetary policy stance was necessary to combat a recent resurgence of price pressures. Inflation rose to an eight-month high of 8.6% in December—above the NBK’s 5.0% medium-term target—amid energy tariff hikes, and, moreover, the tenge has weakened sharply recently as the U.S. dollar has strengthened and the U.S. has pursued fresh sanctions against Russia. Moreover, the Bank assessed that core inflation and inflation expectations continued to climb through January, and high-frequency data suggests that domestic demand continues to outstrip domestic supply.
Easing cycle likely to resume ahead, but upside risks to rates loom: In its communiqué, the NBK maintained a hawkish tone, indicating that it will “assess the need” for further cuts to consolidate the downward trend of inflation towards its target. In addition, the Bank pointed to rising inflationary risks associated with unanchored inflation expectations, sky-high price pressures, a depreciating currency, and fiscal stimulus. Our panel anticipates inflation to slow in 2025 as a whole but to remain far above the NBK’s inflation target—around the midpoint of its 6.5–8.5% forecast—and as such, risks to the policy rate are skewed to the upside. Still, our Consensus is for moderate monetary policy easing ahead, with most of our panelists penciling in 25–375 basis points of cuts for this year. The Bank will announce its next monetary policy decision on 7 March.
Panelist insight: Goldman Sachs’ Basak Edizgil and Clemens Grafe commented: “We see continued pressure on inflation in the near term from FX pass-through. Moreover, Tenge-Ruble parity has been more persistent than our expectation, as the loosening of fiscal policy in Kazakhstan has brought the country’s economic cycle closer to that of Russia. And, at 575bp, the rate differential remains large. Given these and the Bank's guidance, we think the likelihood of a rate hike in March has increased.”
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Kazakhstani interest rate projections for the next ten years from a panel of 9 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable interest rate forecast available for Kazakhstani interest rate.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Kazakhstani interest rate projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Kazakhstani interest rate forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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