Algeria

Algeria Economic Forecast

Algeria Economic Outlook

The economy likely remained in a tough spot in the third quarter. Available data for the hydrocarbons sector—which accounts for roughly 19% of GDP—is mixed. In July–August, LNG production growth surpassed that of Q2. Similarly, natural gas output growth accelerated from Q2 to over 11% year on year in Q3. Less positively, the rate of decline in oil production more than doubled in Q3 from the prior three months. In the non-oil sector, meanwhile, momentum will have been downbeat; the year-on-year contraction in merchandise exports accelerated in July from Q2, suggesting faltering international demand. Moreover, inflation averaged above Q2’s level in Q3, hurting purchasing power. However, relatively low interest rates should have provided some support.

Algeria Inflation

Inflation softened to 10.3% in September from August’s 11.1% on lower increases in prices for food and transport. Inflation is expected to average below 2023’s projected level in 2024; nevertheless, it will remain above the 10-year average of around 5%. Food price spikes due to extreme weather are an upside risk.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Algeria from 2013 to 2022.

Algeria Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 42.6 43.4 43.9 44.6 45.3
GDP (USD bn) 174 172 146 164 195
GDP per capita (USD) 4,081 3,953 3,324 3,669 4,301
GDP (DZD bn) 20,259 20,500 18,477 22,079 27,689
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 9.1 1.2 -9.9 19.5 25.4
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 1.2 1.0 -5.1 3.4 3.2
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.8 2.1 -3.0 3.7 2.9
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.3 1.9 -0.1 1.2 2.2
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 3.1 -3.6 -5.2 5.8 2.4
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -3.7 -6.1 -11.3 13.4 0.0
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) -3.8 -6.9 -16.0 -4.1 0.1
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) -1.2 -1.1 -6.9 7.3 1.7
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 10.4 10.5 12.2 11.7 11.6
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -6.8 -9.6 -11.9 -7.2 -2.9
Public Debt (% of GDP) 38.4 46.0 52.0 62.8 55.6
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 11.1 -0.8 7.0 13.6 14.5
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 3.5 2.4 2.8 8.7 9.5
Discount Rate (%, eop) 3.50 3.50 3.00 3.00 3.00
Exchange Rate (DZD per USD, eop) 118 119 132 139 137
Exchange Rate (DZD per USD, aop) 117 119 127 135 142
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -16.9 -17.0 -18.2 -4.5 19.0
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -9.7 -9.9 -12.5 -2.8 9.8
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -8.1 -11.7 -15.5 -1.0 24.2
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 41.2 35.3 21.9 38.4 65.1
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 49.2 47.0 37.4 39.4 40.9
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 17.1 -14.2 -37.9 75.3 69.4
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -0.9 -4.6 -20.4 5.4 3.7
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 1.5 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.1
International Reserves (USD bn) 80.2 63.3 48.9 46.1 61.7
International Reserves (months of imports) 19.6 16.2 15.7 14.0 18.1
External Debt (USD bn) 5.7 5.5 5.2 7.4 -
External Debt (% of GDP) 3.3 3.2 3.6 4.5 -

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