Romania Imports (G&S, ann. var. %)

Economic growth speeds up in Q4

According to a preliminary estimate, growth picked up in the fourth quarter, coming in at 5.1% on an annual basis (Q3: +4.4% yoy). A full breakdown will not be available until 8 March. However, higher year-on-year growth in retail sales in Q4 compared to Q3 suggests that private consumption accelerated, while EU funds should have continued to support investment activity.

On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy expanded 1.1% in Q4 (Q3: 1.2% qoq s.a.).

Commenting on the reading and the outlook, Nicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc from JPMorgan said:

“We expect Romania to continue to outperform its peers on growth in 2023 (and potentially longer). Not only does the economy enter 2023 with the strongest growth momentum, Romania is the only CEE country to have expanded consistently since the pandemic, highlighting the resilience of the economy with careful macro policies and supported by EU-led investments.”

Moreover, Valentin Tataru from ING commented:

“While a slowdown in private consumption could be visible in the first quarter of 2023, […] the strong momentum in investment activity (presumably related to EU-financed projects) should continue and prevent a contraction. Corroborate that with a somewhat looser monetary policy due to laxer liquidity management, and the picture for 2023 does not look all that grim.”