Hungarian Parliament building

Hungary Interest Rate

Hungary Interest Rate

Central Bank Base Rate in Hungary

The Central Bank Base Rate ended 2022 at 13.00%, up from the 2.40% end-2021 value and higher than the reading of 3.00% a decade earlier. For reference, the average Central Bank Base Rate in Eastern Europe was 8.40% by the end of 2022. For more interest rate information, visit our dedicated page.

Hungary Interest Rate Chart

Note: This chart displays Policy Interest Rate (%) for Hungary from 2018 to 2014.
Source: National Bank of Hungary.

Hungary Interest Rate Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Central Bank Base Rate (%, eop) 0.90 0.90 0.60 2.40 13.00
3-Month Interbank Rate (%, eop) 0.13 0.16 0.75 4.21 16.18
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 3.01 2.01 2.08 4.51 8.98

MNB delivers smaller rate cut in April

At its 23 April meeting, the Monetary Council of the Hungarian National Bank (MNB) reduced its base rate to 7.75% from 8.25%, a smaller cut than March’s 75 basis point reduction. Moreover, the Bank lowered the overnight collateralized lending rate to 8.75% from 9.25% and the overnight deposit rate to 6.75% from 7.25%, therefore maintaining the symmetry of the interest rate corridor.

The Bank cut rates less aggressively than at its previous meeting, as, even though inflation continued to fall in March, a volatile risk environment called for a cautious monetary policy strategy. Headline inflation dropped to 3.6% in March from 3.7% in February, remaining within the Central Bank’s 2.0–4.0% target range; moreover, core inflation slowed to 4.4% in March from the previous month’s 5.1%. Going forward, the Bank expects core inflation to fluctuate between 4.5 and 5.0% during the remainder of this year.

Looking ahead, the MNB stated that “the outlook for inflation warrants further reduction in the base rate at a slower pace than earlier” and reiterated that future decisions will depend on macroeconomic data, inflation and the risk environment. Our panelists expect the Bank to cut rates further by the end of this year. A weaker-than-expected forint amid flare-ups in government disputes with the EU is an upside risk to interest rates. The next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for 21 May.

Commenting on the monetary policy decision, ING’s Peter Virovacz and Dávid Szonyi stated: “We view the outcome as a clear case of the Monetary Council delivering on its promise not to surprise markets. In our view, the slowdown is clearly the result of the inflation outlook (mainly its changing structure), while recent volatility and instability in market sentiment mainly stemming from global drivers warrants patient decision-making going forward.”

Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Hungarian interest rate projections for the next ten years from a panel of 23 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable interest rate forecast available for Hungarian interest rate.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Hungarian interest rate projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Hungarian interest rate forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.

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