Slovenia Merchandise Exports (EUR bn)

After losing speed in Q3 last year, activity almost flatlined in Q4, which brought the growth rate for 2022 to 5.4%. Turning to Q1 this year, early signs are upbeat and our panelists expect a small acceleration in activity amid decelerating inflation, record-high government spending budgeted for 2023, energy price caps and minimum wage increases. In January, the annual growth of exports and retail sales picked up versus the Q4 average. Furthermore, in the current quarter thus far, business and consumer confidence have averaged slightly higher than in Q4. That said, a series of large company closures in March and associated job losses will be weighing on output. More positively, a EUR 650 million compensation scheme for energy-intensive companies introduced in late February will increase firms’ competitiveness, boosting exports and stemming job losses ahead.