Slovenia Private consumption

Economic growth rises in the first quarter of 2026

GDP growth ranks the best in the euro area: Slovenia's GDP increased 3.0% in annual terms in Q1, following a 2.0% expansion in the prior quarter. Q1's reading was the strongest since Q2 2022 and, at the time of writing, was the best reported in the euro area. In seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms, the economy expanded 0.7% in Q1, following 0.4% growth in the prior quarter.

Fixed investment spearheads momentum: Relative to the prior quarter's data, readings in Q1 improved for government consumption (+3.9% in annual terms vs +3.8% in Q4), fixed investment (+12.6% vs +11.9% in Q4) and exports of goods and services (+0.7% vs +0.5% in Q4). In contrast, readings worsened for private consumption (+2.7% vs +3.0% in Q4) and imports of goods and services (+1.5% vs +4.8% in Q4). Fixed investment emerged as the main engine of GDP growth in Q1, fueled by EU funding and ongoing post-flood reconstruction efforts. On the other hand, exports, while accelerating slightly, still grew at a modest pace—likely constrained by a slowdown in pharmaceutical production and lingering trade frictions.

GDP growth to ease: Our Consensus for Q2’s GDP growth has dropped since the start of the U.S.-Iran conflict and now points to a slowdown from Q1. The war in the Middle East has had a significant impact on energy prices; domestic inflation surged to a joint 28-month high in April, which will likely weigh heavily on private consumption and industrial production. Additionally, persistent trade frictions and sluggish momentum in major trading partners are likely to create further headwinds for the external sector. Downside risks remain, particularly the prospect of energy prices staying elevated for an extended period.

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Slovenian private consumption projections for the next ten years from a panel of 13 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable private consumption forecast available for Slovenian private consumption.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Slovenian private consumption projections.

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