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Ukraine Inflation April 2024

Ukraine: Inflation holds stable in April

Inflation stood at 3.2% in April, unchanged from March’s result. As such, April’s reading came in below market expectations and remained below the National Bank of Ukraine’s 4.0-6.0% target range. Looking at the details of the release, prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages declined in the month and price pressures for restaurants and hotels eased. On the flipside, price growth for transportation picked up notably.

The trend pointed down, with annual average inflation coming in at 7.2% in April (March: 8.4%). Meanwhile, core inflation rose to 4.4% in April, from the previous month’s 4.2%.

Finally, consumer prices increased 0.19% from the previous month in April, slowing down from March’s 0.50% increase. April’s result marked the weakest reading since August 2023.

Goldman Sachs analysts Andrew Matheny and Johan Allen commented on the outlook:

“The base effects that have driven Ukraine’s considerable disinflation process are now largely in the rear-view mirror, so the sequential pace of inflation will have a larger influence on the headline year-over-year CPI print than before. Inflation momentum remains weak however, so we expect headline inflation will remain below the NBU’s target over the coming months until base effects ‘mechanically’ pushes it back into the target range, where it will remain through the end of the year. […] Arguably, today’s inflation print speaks in favour of a larger cut at the next MPC.”

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