Economic Growth in Ukraine
Ukraine's economy recorded an average growth rate of -3.4% in the decade to 2022, below the 2.5% average for Eastern Europe. In 2022, Ukraine's real GDP growth was -29.1%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Ukraine GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Ukraine from 2015 to 2014.
Source: Macrobond.
Ukraine GDP Data
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 3.2 | -3.8 | 3.5 | -28.8 | 5.3 |
GDP (EUR bn) | 137 | 137 | 168 | 153 | 165 |
GDP (USD bn) | 154 | 156 | 199 | 160 | 178 |
GDP (UAH bn) | 3,978 | 4,222 | 5,451 | 5,239 | 6,538 |
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | 11.7 | 6.1 | 29.1 | -3.9 | 24.8 |
GDP growth deteriorates in Q2
GDP reading: According to a preliminary estimate, GDP grew 3.7% annually in Q2 (Q1: +6.5% yoy). On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, the economy expanded 0.2% in Q2, weakening from the prior quarter’s 1.2% rise.
Drivers: Absent a full data breakdown, the annual growth moderation likely stemmed from weaker industrial activity and energy output. More positively, other sectors of the economy showed resilience in the quarter. Moreover, surging credit growth plus lower interest rates and average inflation will have boosted domestic demand. On the external front, growth in nominal exports of goods reached the highest rate since Q4 2021 in Q2, pointing to an improvement in trade flows despite the war. Meanwhile, nominal goods imports rebounded.
GDP outlook: Our panel expects GDP growth to cool further by year-end, capped by Russia’s heavy attacks on the energy grid. Over 2024 as a whole, the economy will rise by less than in 2023 as the expansions in household spending, public consumption and fixed investment all slow from last year. On the flipside, rebounding exports and foreign aid inflows will provide tailwinds to growth. The outlook for Ukraine’s economy continues to hinge on the course of the war, the counteroffensive in the east and inflows of international aid.
Panelist insight: Analysts at the EIU commented on the outlook: “We expect the economy to grow by 3.6% in 2024, with growth affected by extensive Russian strikes on energy infrastructure, exacerbated by funding delays in the first half of the year. Annual real GDP growth is set to remain at a similar pace in 2025, as disruption to energy infrastructure will also affect growth next year.”
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Ukrainian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 30 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Ukrainian GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Ukrainian GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Ukrainian GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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