Ukraine: Central Bank hikes again in January
Latest bank decision: At its meeting on 23 January, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) decided to raise the key policy rate from 13.50% to 14.50%. The decision followed December’s 50-basis-point increase, surprising markets on the upside.
Monetary policy drivers: January’s hike was primarily aimed at supporting the hryvnia in the FX market, curbing price pressures and anchoring inflation expectations. Price growth has strengthened recently and continues to outpace the NBU’s 5.0% target amid damage to critical infrastructure plus energy and labor shortages.
Policy outlook: The NBU echoed its December guidance in January, stating that it could deliver further rate hikes in its coming meetings if inflationary pressures persist. Our panelists forecast inflation to rise further in H1 and to more than double the 5.0% target rate in 2025 as a whole. They also expect the NBU to hike rates further by Q2 before reducing them later in the year. As a result, the policy rate is set to rise by about 100 basis points more before dropping to its end-2024 level at the end of 2025. Weaker-than-expected inflows of foreign aid, higher-than-anticipated inflation, and additional energy and labor shortages pose upside risks to interest rates.
The Bank will reconvene on 6 March.