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Ukraine Inflation

Ukraine Inflation

Inflation in Ukraine

Consumer price inflation in Ukraine averaged 14.1% in the ten years to 2022, significantly above the Eastern Europe regional average of 7.7%. The 2022 average figure was 20.1%. For more inflation information, visit our dedicated page.

Ukraine Inflation Chart

Note: This chart displays Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) for Ukraine from 2014 to 2023.
Source: State Statistics Service of Ukraine.

Ukraine Inflation Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 11.0 7.9 2.7 9.3 20.1
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 9.8 4.1 5.0 10.0 26.6
Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, eop) 17.4 4.1 -1.6 62.2 47.3

Inflation declines to lowest level since November 2020 in March

Inflation came in at 4.0% in March, down from February’s 4.5%. March's result represented the weakest inflation rate since November 2020. Looking at the details of the release, prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages rose at a softer pace in March, while prices for housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels rose at a largely steady rate compared to the previous month's reading. In addition, the trend pointed down, with annual average inflation coming in at 8.5% in March (February: 9.9%). Meanwhile, core inflation fell to 4.2% in March, from February’s 4.5%. Lastly, consumer prices increased 0.50% in March over the previous month, accelerating from February's 0.31% increase.

Goldman Sachs analysts Andrew Matheny and Johan Allen commented on the outlook: “Our baseline forecast is for inflation to continue to come in weak this year and for the Hryvnia to gradually depreciate, which would allow the [National Bank of Ukraine] (NBU) to continue the cutting cycle at the same 50bp pace in upcoming meetings, down to +11.5% at year-end and a terminal +10% rate. However, with inflation continuing to decline further below the NBU’s target, growth coming in weaker-than-expected in Q4 and the Hryvnia recently strengthening against the USD, risks are skewed towards larger cuts in our view.” EIU analysts said: “The pace of disinflation will slow in 2024 as the one-off effects of a 2023 fall in food prices caused by export constraints disappear and economic growth picks up. We forecast annual average inflation of 5.5% in 2024, up from an end-year rate of 5.1% in 2023. […] Expansionary fiscal spending remains a risk, but the concentration of government expenditure in defence, the managed float in the first half of the forecast period, and the financing of deficits through aid and concessional loans will prevent a serious build-up of inflationary pressures in the wider economy.”

Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Ukrainian inflation projections for the next ten years from a panel of 25 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable inflation forecast available for Ukrainian inflation.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Ukrainian inflation projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Ukrainian inflation forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.

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