The motherland monument in Ukraine

Ukraine Private consumption

Ukraine Private consumption

Private Consumption in Ukraine

The Ukraine economy recorded an average private consumption growth rate of -0.7% in the decade to 2022, below the 2.1% average for Eastern Europe. In 2022, private consumption growth was -26.7%. For more private consumption information, visit our dedicated page.

Ukraine Private consumption Chart

Note: This chart displays Private Consumption (annual variation in %) for Ukraine from 2013 to 2022.
Source: State Statistics Service of Ukraine.

Ukraine Private consumption Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 9.3 10.9 1.7 6.9 -26.7

Economy records first growth since late 2021 in Q2 2023

According to a preliminary estimate, GDP grew 19.5% year on year in the second quarter of 2023, improving from the 10.5% decline seen in the first quarter. This result was stronger than expected and marked the first expansion since Q4 2021, following Russia’s invasion in February 2022. Meanwhile, on a sequential basis, GDP grew by 0.8% quarter on quarter in Q2, cooling from Q1’s 2.4% expansion. Absent a detailed breakdown, a press release from the Ministry of Economy stated that all subcomponents of domestic demand grew in Q2 on an annual basis, helped by government support for businesses, the restoration of production facilities and infrastructure and larger international aid inflows. Additionally, exports contributed to growth thanks to the Black Sea Grain Initiative and the establishment of new export routes, according to the Ministry. A strong base effect given it’s now been over a year since Russia’s invasion also supported Q2’s reading.

The economy should have expanded robustly in Q3, though should still have slowed markedly from Q2. The launch of the National Bank of Ukraine’s monetary loosening cycle in July should have fueled domestic demand. Strong fiscal stimulus and sustained foreign aid added further support. However, the end of the Grain Deal in July should have hit exports, and the collapse of the Kakhovka dam in early June likely further capped growth. The course of the counteroffensive, inflows of foreign funds and the fate of grain exports are key factors to monitor. Analysts at the EIU commented on risks to the outlook: “The risk of a contraction in 2023 is high—the destruction of critical energy infrastructure, alongside continuing heavy hostilities in the south and the east of the country, will act as a major drag on the economy. The loss of economic activity in the area of the Kakhovka Dam, the end of the Black Sea grain deal, and the start of military attacks on Ukrainian ports and ships in the Black Sea could all combine to push the economy into recession.”

Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Ukrainian private consumption projections for the next ten years from a panel of 12 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable private consumption forecast available for Ukrainian private consumption.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Ukrainian private consumption projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Ukrainian private consumption forecasts? Send an email to

Free sample report

Interested in economic reports, analysis and data? FocusEconomics provides data, forecasts and analysis for hundreds of countries and commodities. Request your free sample report now.

Close Left Media Arrows Left Media Circles Right Media Arrows Right Media Circles Arrow Quote Wave Address Email Telephone Man in front of screen with line chart Document with bar chart and magnifying glass Application window with bar chart Target with arrow Line Chart Stopwatch Globe with arrows Document with bar chart in front of screen Bar chart with magnifying glass and dollar sign Lightbulb Document with bookmark Laptop with download icon Calendar Icon Nav Menu Arrow Arrow Right Long Icon Arrow Right Icon Chevron Right Icon Chevron Left Icon Briefcase Icon Linkedin In Icon Full Linkedin Icon Filter Facebook Linkedin Twitter Pinterest