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CdI Economic Forecast

CdI Economic Outlook

The economy expanded 5.9% year on year on average in H1 2023, cooling marginally from H2 2022. So far in H2, growth should have accelerated. Industrial output rose 2.0% year on year on average in July–August. That said, in August, production declined marginally on a contraction in manufacturing output more than offsetting a rebound in the extractive subsector and stronger growth in the environmental subsector and in electricity, water and gas output. Meanwhile, harmonized inflation averaged the lowest since Q2 2021 in Q3, providing households with some breathing room. In politics, following 2 September’s local elections and the unexpected dismissal of Patrick Achi on 6 October, President Ouattara appointed Robert Mambé as the new prime minister on 16 October; no shift in policy is expected. In the same month, the EBRD approved the country’s membership, boding well for investor sentiment and financing availability.

CdI Inflation

Harmonized inflation rose to 4.2% in September, up from August’s 3.6%, on stronger price increases for both food and transport. In 2024, harmonized inflation will average below 2023’s rate and fall back within the official 1.0–3.0% target band due to the lagged effects of higher interest rates this year. The currency peg against the euro should keep a lid on price growth.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for CdI from 2013 to 2022.

CdI Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 25.6 26.3 27.0 27.7 28.4
GDP (USD bn) 58.4 60.3 63.0 71.8 70.0
GDP per capita (USD) 2,281 2,296 2,337 2,595 2,466
GDP (XOF bn) 32,506 35,382 36,252 39,821 43,682
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 6.6 8.8 2.5 9.8 9.7
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 4.8 6.7 0.9 7.4 6.7
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 6.0 3.6 4.7 2.4 3.3
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 5.1 17.5 2.5 16.1 8.0
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 0.3 -2.8 26.8 -7.2 11.4
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -3.7 9.0 10.7 10.6 10.2
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 4.4 2.7 6.1 13.4 6.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -2.9 -2.2 -5.4 -4.9 -6.8
Public Debt (% of GDP) 35.3 37.5 46.3 50.9 56.8
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 13.4 10.8 21.1 18.3 9.4
Inflation (HICP, ann. var. %, aop) 0.6 0.8 2.4 4.2 5.2
Marginal Lending Rate (%, eop) 2.50 2.50 2.00 2.00 2.75
Exchange Rate (XOF per USD, eop) 574 584 535 577 615
Exchange Rate (XOF per USD, aop) 556 587 575 555 624
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -2.1 -1.3 -2.0 -2.9 -4.4
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -3.5 -2.2 -3.1 -4.0 -6.3
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 2.5 3.1 3.0 3.1 1.0
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 11.9 12.6 12.5 15.3 16.3
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 9.4 9.5 9.5 12.3 15.3
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 0.9 6.0 -0.9 22.4 6.7
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 11.8 0.2 0.6 28.8 25.1
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 0.6 0.9 0.7 1.4 1.6
International Reserves (USD bn) 6.4 7.4 9.4 10.7 -
International Reserves (months of imports) 8.1 9.4 11.8 10.5 -
External Debt (USD bn) 16.2 19.8 25.1 29.8 -
External Debt (% of GDP) 27.7 32.9 39.8 41.5 -

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