CdI Economic Forecast

The economy expanded 5.9% year on year on average in H1 2023, cooling marginally from H2 2022. So far in H2, growth should have accelerated. Industrial output rose 2.0% year on year on average in July–August. That said, in August, production declined marginally on a contraction in manufacturing output more than offsetting a rebound in the extractive subsector and stronger growth in the environmental subsector and in electricity, water and gas output. Meanwhile, harmonized inflation averaged the lowest since Q2 2021 in Q3, providing households with some breathing room. In politics, following 2 September’s local elections and the unexpected dismissal of Patrick Achi on 6 October, President Ouattara appointed Robert Mambé as the new prime minister on 16 October; no shift in policy is expected. In the same month, the EBRD approved the country’s membership, boding well for investor sentiment and financing availability.

Harmonized inflation rose to 4.2% in September, up from August’s 3.6%, on stronger price increases for both food and transport. In 2024, harmonized inflation will average below 2023’s rate and fall back within the official 1.0–3.0% target band due to the lagged effects of higher interest rates this year. The currency peg against the euro should keep a lid on price growth.