The skyline in DR Congo

DR Congo Economic Forecast

DR Congo Economic Outlook

Economic growth should have lost traction so far this year, although largely on a base effect, as the economy grew nearly 9% in 2022. In the first quarter, average inflation was the highest since Q3 2018. In addition, the Central Bank aggressively hiked interest rates through August—delivering a cumulative 1,675 basis points worth of increases so far this year in a bid to support the ailing currency, which plummeted in June. These developments have pressured purchasing power, boding ill for both private consumption and investment. In politics, ahead of the general election on 20 December, the government has accused Rwanda and members of the M23 Movement of impeding the peace process by preventing around 1.5 million citizens from registering to vote. This bodes ill for the proper representation and fairness of the vote.

DR Congo Inflation

In May—the latest month for which data is available—inflation ebbed to 16.6% from April’s 16.9%. Average inflation will accelerate notably this year from 2022, fueled by currency weakness and robust economic activity. Downside risks include additional interest rate increases.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for DR Congo from 2013 to 2022.

DR Congo Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 85.1 87.9 90.8 93.8 96.8
GDP (USD bn) 47.6 51.8 48.7 55.4 58.1
GDP per capita (USD) 559 589 537 590 600
GDP (CDF bn) 77,181 85,314 90,181 110,115 125,121
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 38.6 10.5 5.7 22.1 13.6
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 5.8 4.4 1.7 6.2 8.9
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 1.9 5.5 -1.3 4.5 4.1
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 10.2 6.6 4.1 21.7 22.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 0.0 -2.0 -1.4 -0.9 -1.6
Public Debt (% of GDP) 14.8 14.8 16.7 16.3 14.6
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 7.2 4.6 15.8 5.3 13.1
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 29.3 4.7 11.4 9.0 9.3
Policy Rate (%, eop) 14.00 9.00 18.50 8.50 8.25
Exchange Rate (CDF per USD, eop) 1,571 1,668 1,971 2,000 2,001
Exchange Rate (CDF per USD, aop) 1,571 1,640 1,850 1,989 2,002
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -1.7 -1.6 -1.1 -0.5 -
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -3.6 -3.1 -2.2 -0.9 -
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 1.0 0.4 1.9 3.9 -
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 16.0 15.0 13.8 22.2 -
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 15.0 14.6 11.9 18.2 -
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 38.3 -5.9 -8.3 60.9 -
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 32.0 -2.3 -18.9 53.8 -
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.8
International Reserves (USD bn) 0.7 1.2 0.7 3.5 -
International Reserves (months of imports) 0.5 1.0 0.8 2.3 -
External Debt (USD bn) 6.8 7.6 8.2 10.3 -
External Debt (% of GDP) 14.4 14.6 16.8 18.6 -

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