The skyline in DR Congo

DR Congo Economic Forecast

DR Congo Economic Outlook

GDP growth strengthened in H1 2022 due to a double-digit expansion in the mining sector and elevated commodity prices. In H2, activity growth likely softened: Annual expansions in copper and cobalt production waned compared to H1. Cobalt output was particularly weak, with double-digit contractions in every month of Q4. This, along with declining commodity prices, weighed on government revenue in H2. Moreover, elevated inflation between July and December should have depressed private consumption, while business sentiment averaged lower in July–August, suggesting subdued investment. Meanwhile, the escalation of the conflict in the east of the country at the end of 2022 likely dented economic activity. The region remains strife-torn: Militia and Islamic State attacks are intensifying, while a cease-fire negotiated on 4 February broke down within hours.

DR Congo Inflation

Inflation rose to 13.1% in December from 12.6% in November, while month-on-month inflation nearly doubled in the same month, to 1.4% from 0.8%. With the monthly print suggesting inflation has not yet peaked, our panelists expect it to remain elevated this year due to stronger domestic demand. Potential fiscal stimulus in an election year poses an upside risk.

DR Congo Economic Data

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Population (million) 82.4 85.1 87.9 90.8 93.8
GDP (USD bn) 38.0 47.6 51.8 48.7 -
GDP per capita (USD) 461 559 589 536 -
GDP (CDF bn) 55 77 85 90 -
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 48.4 38.6 10.5 5.7 -
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 3.7 5.8 4.4 1.7 6.2
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.4 1.9 5.5 -1.3 4.5
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) -32.8 10.2 6.6 4.1 21.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 1.4 0.0 -2.0 -1.4 -1.0
Public Debt (% of GDP) 19.2 15.1 15.0 16.5 16.1
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 54.7 7.2 4.6 15.8 5.3
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 35.7 29.3 4.7 11.4 9.0
Policy Rate (%, eop) 20.00 14.00 9.00 18.50 8.50
Exchange Rate (CDF per USD, eop) 1 1 1 1 2
Exchange Rate (CDF per USD, aop) 1 1 1 1 1
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -1.2 -1.7 -1.6 -1.1 -
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -3.3 -3.5 -3.1 -2.2 -
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 0.2 1.0 0.4 1.9 3.9
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 11.5 16.0 15.0 13.8 22.2
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 11.3 15.0 14.6 11.9 18.2
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -2.8 38.3 -5.9 -8.3 60.9
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -6.7 32.0 -2.3 -18.9 53.8
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.9
International Reserves (USD bn) 0.7 0.7 1.2 0.7 3.5
International Reserves (months of imports) 0.7 0.5 1.0 0.8 2.3
External Debt (USD bn) 6.9 6.8 7.6 8.2 10.3
External Debt (% of GDP) 18.7 14.6 15.0 16.8 -

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