Zambia Economic Outlook
Copper-dependent economy:
Zambia’s economy is heavily reliant on copper mining, which accounts for over 70% of export earnings. While the mining sector has benefited from periods of high global copper prices, this dependence has also left Zambia vulnerable to price fluctuations, leading to economic volatility. The government has been working to diversify the economy, though progress has been slow.
Debt distress and fiscal challenges:Zambia became the first African country to default on its sovereign debt during the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting the country’s financial vulnerabilities. The government has since engaged in debt restructuring negotiations with creditors and the IMF. Public debt remains a major concern, limiting fiscal space for infrastructure and social programs.
Agriculture and energy potential:Despite its mining dominance, Zambia has vast agricultural potential, with fertile land and favorable climate conditions. Efforts to boost agricultural productivity and exports, particularly in maize and livestock, are ongoing. The country also has significant hydropower resources, but frequent droughts have led to energy shortages, impacting industrial activity.
Challenges and risks:High debt levels, inflation, and currency depreciation remain key risks to Zambia’s economic stability. Additionally, slow policy implementation, regulatory uncertainty in the mining sector, and a weak business environment continue to deter investment. The government’s ability to navigate its fiscal challenges while sustaining economic growth will be crucial.
Zambia’s economic outlook:While copper prices and debt restructuring efforts offer some relief, Zambia’s economic prospects in the long term hinge on diversifying beyond mining, improving governance, and addressing macroeconomic imbalances. Strengthening the agriculture and manufacturing sectors could provide greater economic stability and reduce dependence on volatile commodity markets.
Zambia's Macroeconomic Analysis:
Nominal GDP of USD 26.4 billion in 2024.
Nominal GDP of USD 28.1 billion in 2023.
GDP per capita of USD 1,248 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
GDP per capita of USD 1,364 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
Average real GDP growth of 3.6% over the last decade.
Average real GDP growth of 3.6% over the last decade.
Sector Analysis
In 2022, services accounted for 54.9% of overall GDP, manufacturing 8.3%, other industrial activity 34.0%, and agriculture 2.8%. Looking at GDP by expenditure, private consumption accounted for 35.6% of GDP in 2022, government consumption 14.3%, fixed investment 27.0%, and net exports 23.1%.International trade
In 2023, manufactured products made up 12.8% of total merchandise exports, mineral fuels 4.1%, food 10.6%, ores and metals 71.4% and agricultural raw materials 0.6%, with other categories accounting for 0.5% of the total. In the same period, manufactured products made up 67.0% of total merchandise imports, mineral fuels 19.3%, food 6.9%, ores and metals 5.7% and agricultural raw materials 1.1%, with other goods accounting for 0.0% of the total. Total exports were worth USD 10.50 billion in 2023, while total imports were USD 9.10 billion.Main Economic Indicators
Economic growthThe economy recorded average annual growth of 3.6% in the decade to 2023. To read more about GDP growth in Zambia, go to our dedicated page.
Fiscal policy
Zambia's fiscal deficit averaged 7.7% of GDP in the decade to 2022. Find out more on our dedicated page.
Unemployment
The unemployment rate averaged 5.8% in the decade to 2023. For more information on Zambia's unemployment click here.
Inflation
Inflation averaged 12.1% in the decade to 2024. Go to our Zambia inflation page for extra insight.
Monetary Policy
Zambia's monetary policy rate ended 2024 at 14.00%, up from 12.50% a decade earlier. See our Zambia monetary policy page for additional details.
Exchange Rate
From end-2014 to end-2024 the kwacha weakened by 76.6% vs the U.S. dollar. For more info on the kwacha, click here.
Economic situation in Zambia
Annual GDP growth averaged 2.2% in Q1–Q3, well below the pre-pandemic 10-year average of 4.9%. Severe drought crippled hydropower generation—which accounts for about 85% of Zambia’s energy supply—in turn sparking blackouts and straining energy-intensive industries. In Q4, the economy likely remained subdued: Inflation rose at a breakneck speed in the quarter, the Central Bank hiked rates to the highest level since 2017, and curbs on daily electricity supply to households persisted, weighing on domestic activity. In addition, imports surged in Q4, likely hitting the external sector. Turning to 2025, data is more optimistic: Survey data indicates that business conditions remained positive for the third straight month in February, and water levels at Lake Kariba—where Zambia’s largest dam is located—rose through March.Zambia Economic Forecasts
Projections out to 2034.44 indicators covered including both annual and quarterly frequencies.
Consensus Forecasts based on a panel of 15 expert analysts.
Want to get insight on the economic outlook for Zambia in the coming years? FocusEconomics collects projections out to 2034 on 44 economic indicators for Zambia from a panel of 15 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts, and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. This means you avoid the risk of relying on out of date, biased or outlier forecasts. Our Consensus Forecasts can be visualized in whichever way best suits your needs, including via interactive online dashboards , direct data delivery and executive-style reports which combine analysts' projections with timely written analysis from our in-house team of economists on the latest developments in the Zambia economy. To download a sample report on the Zambia's economy, click here. To get in touch with our team for more information, fill in the form at the bottom of this page.