Zambia Economic Outlook
The economy seemingly lost momentum in Q4. The private-sector PMI remained in negative terrain during the quarter, indicating that business operating conditions worsened. Moreover, inflation accelerated in monthly terms throughout the period, likely denting private spending. Turning to this year, an over one-year high PMI reading in January signals that the economy is picking up steam. That said, February’s interest rate hike should constrain activity going forward. In other news, in late January, IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva visited the country. The director highlighted Zambia’s commitment to reforms and encouraged creditors to agree on debt restructuring terms as soon as possible. Meanwhile, top lender China stated that it wants multilateral development banks to provide debt relief to the country, a policy that the World Bank explicitly rejected.
Zambia Inflation
Inflation declined to 9.4% in January (December: 9.9%). Meanwhile, on 14 February, the Central Bank raised the key rate to 9.25% from 9.00%. The Bank noted that inflation had receded in recent months but that it expected price pressures to jump up in the coming months on a weaker kwacha. Panelists see inflation averaging above the Bank’s 6.0–8.0% target range in 2023.