Ireland Merchandise Trade Balance (EUR bn)

In a second release, the statistical office revised down sequential economic growth for Q4 2022 by almost 12 times—from 3.5% to 0.3%. Meanwhile, modified domestic demand—a measure that strips out distortions arising from multinational activity—contracted for the second consecutive quarter. These two data points suggest that Ireland’s economy is faring worse than the market had earlier anticipated. Heading into Q1, our panelists expect GDP growth to be broadly stable. Monthly data for the quarter thus far has been upbeat, but headwinds such as a flagging global economy and rising interest rates are expected to weigh on growth. In other news, in mid-March the British House of Commons and the EU Council both approved the Windsor Framework, a trade agreement that seeks to reduce post-Brexit customs checks between Great Britain and Northern Ireland—which have proved controversial in the UK.