Egypt Interest Rate

Central Bank of Egypt holds rates in July

CBE extends pause on easing cycle: At its meeting on 9 July, the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) decided to leave its key policy rate unchanged, with the overnight deposit rate remaining at 19.00%. This followed 825 basis points of cuts from April 2025 to February 2026.

Upside inflation risks prompt hold: The Bank decided to hold its policy rate steady, balancing persistent geopolitical risks against a cooling domestic economy. While inflation projections have moderated since the previous meeting, price pressures are still expected to accelerate in the near term. However, this risk is partially offset by favorable exchange-rate developments and a recent decline in broader inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, a rate hike was ruled out following a GDP slowdown in Q1, with GDP growth projected to remain below potential. Given these combined factors and the uncertain outlook, the Bank opted for prudence and held the rate steady once more.

Fewer panelists now expect reductions ahead: The CBE gave no explicit guidance on future rate moves. Our Consensus for the CBE’s policy rates has increased in recent months as a result of the Iran energy shock. Our panel is now broadly split between those who see the Bank cutting rates to support GDP growth and those who see it on hold to contain inflation. The next MPC meeting is scheduled for 20 August.

Panelist insight: Goldman Sachs expects the Central Bank to hold its policy rate steady through the end of the year. Analyst Farouk Soussa commented: “Looking ahead, the moderating inflation path, relatively stable FX and the improvement in the external outlook are likely to move the CBE to remain on hold at +19.00% […] until the end of the year. We continue to expect that as disinflation accelerates in Q1 2027, the CBE will resume its easing cycle, cutting 500bp in 2027 before arriving at the terminal rate of 13% in Q1 2028.”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Egyptian interest rate projections for the next ten years from a panel of 12 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable interest rate forecast available for Egyptian interest rate.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Egyptian interest rate projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Egyptian interest rate forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.