Kyrgyzstan

Kyrgyzstan Economic Forecast

Kyrgyzstan Economic Outlook

January–July saw monthly economic activity rise 2.9% year on year (January–June: +3.9%), with activity in the agricultural and industrial sectors slowing. In addition, average monthly real wages decelerated in January–June in comparison to the previous month’s cumulative total, undermining private spending. Despite this, activity in the construction sector remained stable. Additionally, an increase in cumulative export revenue growth compared to the previous month provided support to the economy. In other news, in early August, the Ministry of Transport announced that infrastructure projects on the Chinese border would be completed by October. Given the significant backlog of truck traffic at the border, these infrastructural improvements are set to alleviate logistical bottlenecks, which bodes well for both the external sector and economic activity more broadly.

Kyrgyzstan Inflation

Inflation eased to 10.2% in July (June: 10.4%) on lower price pressures for food and services. Meanwhile, the Central Bank kept its policy rate at 13.00% at its last meeting on 29 August. Lower GDP growth and persistently high interest rates are set to bring down inflation this year compared to 2022. However, the worsening of water and energy shortages is an upside risk.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Kyrgyzstan from 2013 to 2022.

Kyrgyzstan Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.7 6.8
GDP (USD bn) 8.3 8.9 7.8 8.7 11.5
GDP per capita (USD) 1,322 1,388 1,194 1,314 1,700
GDP (EUR bn) 7.0 7.9 6.8 7.4 10.9
GDP per capita (EUR) 1,119 1,240 1,045 1,110 1,609
GDP (KGS bn) 569 619 602 740 971
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 7.3 8.7 -2.8 22.9 31.3
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 3.8 4.6 -8.4 6.2 7.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -0.6 -0.1 -3.3 -0.8 -
Public Debt (% of GDP) 54.8 51.6 67.6 59.5 -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 1.5 1.1 6.3 11.9 13.9
Policy Rate (%, eop) 4.75 4.25 5.00 8.00 13.00
Exchange Rate (KGS per USD, eop) 69.85 69.64 82.65 84.76 85.68
Exchange Rate (KGS per USD, aop) 68.84 69.79 77.33 84.64 84.08
Exchange Rate (KGS per EUR, eop) 79.85 78.18 101.13 96.39 91.44
Exchange Rate (KGS per EUR, aop) 81.22 78.12 88.16 100.05 88.38
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -1.0 -1.1 0.4 -0.7 -5.1
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -11.6 -12.0 4.8 -8.4 -44.0
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -3.0 -2.6 -1.4 -2.4 -6.8
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.8 2.2
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 4.9 4.6 3.4 5.2 9.0
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 5.6 6.6 -1.3 37.9 -21.2
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 17.8 -5.1 -25.9 50.5 73.6
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 0.1 0.4 -0.4 0.2 0.3
International Reserves (USD bn) 2.2 2.4 2.8 3.0 2.8
International Reserves (months of imports) 5.3 6.3 9.8 6.9 3.7
External Debt (USD bn) 8.1 8.4 8.7 9.2 9.7
External Debt (% of GDP) 98.4 94.9 112.3 105.8 84.4

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