Kyrgyzstan

Kyrgyzstan Economic Forecast

Kyrgyzstan Economic Outlook

Economic growth slowed in January–March, expanding 4.6% year on year, down from 7.0% in January–December 2022. The moderation came on the back of lackluster expansions in the agricultural, industrial and construction sectors, as well as softer growth in cargo transportation volumes. In addition, annual net remittances declined by 34%, which likely pressured household spending. That said, retail trade and capital investment growth accelerated, while the Kumtor mine saw a surge in gold production. Turning to Q2, GDP growth should continue to slow. Growth in the economic-activity index softened to 4.4% yoy in January–April, chiefly due to waning industrial output growth. That said, the rest of the domestic economy was dynamic: Agricultural output, retail sales, construction activity and fixed investment all expanded more rapidly. On the external side, exports also grew at a faster pace.

Kyrgyzstan Inflation

Inflation declined to 10.7% in April (March: 12.7%), moving closer to the Central Bank’s 5.0–7.0% target range. Meanwhile, the Central Bank kept its policy rate at 13.00% on 30 May. Our panelists anticipate inflation easing this year due to lower global price pressures, slower activity and high interest rates. Higher domestic tariffs and commodity price swings pose risks.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Kyrgyzstan from 2013 to 2022.

Kyrgyzstan Economic Data

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Population (million) 6.1 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.7
GDP (USD bn) 7.7 8.3 8.9 7.8 8.7
GDP per capita (USD) 1,255 1,322 1,388 1,194 1,314
GDP (EUR bn) 6.8 7.0 7.9 6.8 7.4
GDP per capita (EUR) 1,111 1,119 1,240 1,045 1,110
GDP (KGS bn) 530 569 619 602 740
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 11.4 7.3 8.7 -2.8 22.9
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 4.7 3.8 4.6 -8.4 6.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -3.7 -0.6 -0.1 -3.3 -0.8
Public Debt (% of GDP) 58.8 54.8 51.6 67.6 59.5
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 3.2 1.5 1.1 6.3 11.9
Policy Rate (%, eop) 5.00 4.75 4.25 5.00 8.00
Exchange Rate (KGS per USD, eop) 69.1 69.9 69.6 82.6 84.8
Exchange Rate (KGS per USD, aop) 68.9 68.8 69.8 77.3 84.6
Exchange Rate (KGS per EUR, eop) 83.0 79.8 78.2 101.1 96.4
Exchange Rate (KGS per EUR, aop) 77.6 81.2 78.1 88.2 100.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -0.5 -1.0 -1.1 0.4 -0.7
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -6.3 -12.1 -12.1 4.8 -8.5
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -2.4 -3.0 -2.6 -1.4 -2.4
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.8
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 4.2 4.9 4.7 3.5 5.2
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 12.8 5.6 6.6 -1.3 37.9
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 12.1 17.9 -5.7 -26.0 50.4
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) -0.1 0.1 0.4 -0.4 0.2
International Reserves (USD bn) 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.8 3.0
International Reserves (months of imports) 6.2 5.2 6.2 9.8 6.9
External Debt (USD bn) 8.1 8.1 8.4 8.7 9.2
External Debt (% of GDP) 106 98 95 112 106

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