Mountains in Ecuador

Ecuador Economic Forecast

Ecuador Economic Outlook

GDP likely grew at a slower annual pace in Q4 compared to Q3. In October–December, economic activity growth was almost flat, weighed down by weak output in October and a contraction in December. Credit growth also decelerated through December, while consumer confidence slipped from Q3 on average—likely dampened by the introduction of a state of emergency in two provinces in November amid surging gang violence—suggesting restrained private sector activity. Lastly, December’s double-digit spike in merchandise exports growth failed to fully offset a tepid performance earlier in the quarter. In Q1, economic growth is likely accelerating, with improving consumer confidence and lower inflation in January–February boding well for private spending. Meanwhile, in early March, the National Assembly approved the opposition’s proposal to trigger an impeachment process against President Lasso on corruption charges.

Ecuador Inflation

Inflation cooled to a ten-month low of 2.9% in February (January: 3.1%) thanks to a broad-based moderation in price pressures. The headline rate should average below current levels in 2023, as commodity prices soften and domestic demand eases. The economy’s dollarization will continue to anchor prices. Commodity price swings and supply-chain shocks pose risks.

Ecuador Economic Data

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Population (million) 16.8 17.0 17.3 17.5 17.8
GDP (USD bn) 104.3 107.6 108.1 99.3 106.2
GDP per capita (USD) 6 6 6 5 5
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 4.4 3.1 0.5 -8.2 6.9
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 2.4 1.3 0.0 -7.8 4.2
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 5.5 2.2 -0.9 -10.2 8.1
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.7 2.1 0.3 -8.2 10.2
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.2 3.5 -2.0 -5.1 -1.7
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 5.3 2.0 -3.3 -19.0 4.3
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 0.7 1.2 3.6 -5.4 -0.1
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 12.2 4.4 0.3 -13.8 13.2
Industry (ann. var. %) 0.0 -1.0 0.2 -10.0 0.5
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 4.4 4.1 4.4 5.0 5.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -6.1 -4.7 -3.5 -7.1 -1.5
Public Debt (% of GDP) 49.9 49.8 53.0 63.6 58.6
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) -0.2 0.3 -0.1 -0.9 1.9
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 0.4 -0.2 0.3 -0.3 0.1
91-120 Day Average Deposit Rate (%, eop) 4.95 5.43 6.17 5.89 5.91
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -0.2 -1.3 -0.1 2.7 3.0
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -0.2 -1.2 -0.1 2.7 2.8
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 0.3 -0.2 1.0 3.5 3.3
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 19.5 22.2 22.8 20.6 27.2
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 19.3 22.4 21.7 17.1 24.0
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 12.3 13.3 2.8 -9.6 32.3
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 21.8 15.9 -2.7 -21.4 40.3
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 0.6 1.4 1.0 1.1 0.6
International Reserves (USD bn) 2.5 2.7 3.4 7.2 7.9
International Reserves (months of imports) 1.5 1.4 1.9 5.1 4.0
External Debt (USD bn) 34.5 40.2 46.1 52.5 56.2
External Debt (% of GDP) 33.0 37.4 42.6 52.9 53.0

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