Mountains in Ecuador

Ecuador Economic Forecast

Ecuador Economic Outlook

The economy should have expanded at a faster clip in Q2, following a deceleration in year-on-year growth in Q1. Economic activity increased at a considerably faster annual pace, on average, in April-June than in Q1. Meanwhile, in mid-August Fitch Ratings downgraded the country’s rating into junk territory, from “B-” to “CCC+”, on heightened financing risks stemming from a marked deterioration in the public finances amid social turmoil and political uncertainty. In politics, Luisa Gonzalez of former president Correa’s Citizen Revolution Movement won the first round of the presidential elections on 20 August, ahead of Daniel Noboa. While the former advocates higher social spending, the latter focuses on improving the business climate, introducing tax incentives for businesses and job creation. The two candidates will face each other in the 15 October runoff.

Ecuador Inflation

Inflation rose to 2.6% in August from 2.1% in July. Inflation should remain fairly low through Q4 2023, dampened by a dollarized economy, tighter financing conditions and soft domestic activity. However, higher global energy prices will provide some upward pressure. Swings in agricultural prices as a result of the El Niño weather pattern are a key factor to watch.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Ecuador from 2013 to 2022.

Ecuador Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 17.0 17.3 17.5 17.8 18.0
GDP (USD bn) 107.6 108.1 99.3 106.2 115.0
GDP per capita (USD) 6,319 6,261 5,670 5,979 6,390
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 3.1 0.5 -8.2 6.9 8.4
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 1.3 0.0 -7.8 4.2 2.9
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 2.2 -0.9 -10.2 8.1 3.5
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.1 0.3 -8.2 10.2 4.6
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.5 -2.0 -5.1 -1.7 4.5
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 2.0 -3.3 -19.0 4.3 2.5
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 1.2 3.6 -5.4 -0.1 2.5
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 4.4 0.3 -13.8 13.2 4.5
Industry (ann. var. %) -1.0 0.2 -10.0 0.5 1.1
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 4.1 4.4 6.1 5.2 4.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -2.8 -3.5 -7.1 -1.6 0.1
Public Debt (% of GDP) 49.8 53.0 63.6 57.1 54.2
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 0.3 -0.1 -0.9 1.9 3.7
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) -0.2 0.3 -0.3 0.1 3.5
91-120 Day Average Deposit Rate (%, eop) 5.43 6.17 5.89 5.91 6.35
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -1.3 -0.2 2.2 3.1 2.1
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -1.2 -0.1 2.2 2.9 1.8
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -0.2 1.0 3.5 3.0 2.5
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 22.2 22.8 20.6 27.0 33.0
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 22.4 21.7 17.1 24.0 30.5
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 13.3 2.8 -9.7 31.1 22.5
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) 15.9 -2.7 -21.4 40.3 27.2
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 1.4 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.8
International Reserves (USD bn) 2.7 3.4 7.2 7.9 8.5
International Reserves (months of imports) 1.4 1.9 5.1 4.0 3.3
External Debt (USD bn) 40.2 46.1 52.5 56.3 57.5
External Debt (% of GDP) 37.4 42.6 52.9 53.0 50.0

Free Sample Report

Interested in Ecuador economic reports, analysis and data? FocusEconomics provides data, forecasts and analysis for hundreds of countries and commodities. Request your free sample report now.

Close Left Media Arrows Left Media Circles Right Media Arrows Right Media Circles Arrow Quote Wave Address Email Telephone Man in front of screen with line chart Document with bar chart and magnifying glass Application window with bar chart Target with arrow Line Chart Stopwatch Globe with arrows Document with bar chart in front of screen Bar chart with magnifying glass and dollar sign Lightbulb Document with bookmark Laptop with download icon Calendar Icon Nav Menu Arrow Arrow Right Long Icon Arrow Right Icon Chevron Right Icon Chevron Left Icon Briefcase Icon Linkedin In Icon Full Linkedin Icon Filter Facebook Linkedin Twitter Pinterest