Ecuador Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)

Fiscal Balance in Ecuador

After a broad-based acceleration in Q4, GDP growth likely lost momentum year on year in Q1 2023. In January-February, monthly economic activity growth remained subdued but marginally above Q4 2022’s average. Heavy flooding, an earthquake and a landslide halfway through Q1 hit activity, while also forcing state oil company Petroecuador to suspend operations and halt oil exports in late February, likely dampening activity in the oil sector. In addition, lower average credit growth in January–March compared to Q4 points to subdued private spending. In other news, in early May, Credit Suisse announced it had bought Ecuadorean bonds worth USD 1.6 billion in a record debt-for-nature swap. Meanwhile, in politics, on 9 May, the National Assembly voted in favor of continuing with President Lasso’s impeachment trial. He will testify to the plenary and face a vote that could see him ousted from power.