Mountains in Ecuador

Ecuador GDP

Ecuador GDP

Economic Growth in Ecuador

The economy of Ecuador recorded an average real GDP growth rate of 1.1% in the decade to 2022, below the 1.3% average for Latin America. In 2022, real GDP growth was 2.9%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.

Ecuador GDP Chart

Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Ecuador from 2017 to 2023.
Source: Macrobond.

Ecuador GDP Data

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 0.2 -9.2 9.8 6.2 2.4
GDP (USD bn) 107.6 95.9 107.4 116.6 118.8
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 0.1 -10.9 12.1 8.5 1.9

GDP records fastest upturn since Q2 2023 in the first quarter

GDP expanded 1.2% on an annual basis in the first quarter, contrasting the 0.7% contraction logged in the fourth quarter of last year and marking the best result since Q2 2023. That said, this was only due to imports swinging into contraction. Underlying activity was downbeat, as private consumption, government consumption, investment and exports all shrank.

Household spending fell at a more pronounced rate of 1.1% year on year in Q1 following a 0.5% contraction in Q4, as spending on retail and transport fell amid the crime wave and national state of emergency declared by the president in January. Public spending, meanwhile, dropped 0.3% (Q4 2023: +1.0% yoy) on lower government employment. Fixed investment fell at a softer pace of 1.3% in Q1, following the 5.2% contraction logged in the prior quarter. Exports of goods and services fell 0.5% on an annual basis in the first quarter, which was above the fourth quarter's 7.4% contraction, driven by lower shrimp exports. Conversely, imports of goods and services deteriorated, contracting 3.3% in Q1 (Q4 2023: +16.2% s.a. qoq).

On the outlook, Oxford Economics’ Mauricio Monge said: “We've adjusted our forecasts for Ecuador's GDP growth by lowering the 2024 projection by 0.1ppt to 0.9% and raising the estimate for 2025 by 0.4ppts to 1.4%. […] The local VAT rate increase and prolonged high interest rates in the US will limit household spending and investment. Additionally, the oil ban in Yasuní Park from Q4 2024 onward will affect oil exports.” 

Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Ecuadorian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 21 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Ecuadorian GDP.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Ecuadorian GDP projections.

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