Kenya: Economic growth hits over one-year high in the first quarter of 2026
GDP reading: Kenya’s GDP increased 5.3% on a year-on-year basis in Q1, following a 4.0% expansion in the previous quarter. Q1’s reading was the strongest since Q4 2024.
In seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms, GDP grew 1.3% in Q1, stable from the prior quarter’s reading.
Drivers: Compared with the previous quarter’s data, readings in Q1 improved for the agricultural sector (+4.9% in annual terms vs -1.3% in Q4) and the industrial sector (+5.4% vs +4.7% in Q4). Finally, the variation in the services sector was the same as in the prior quarter (+5.5% in Q1 and Q4).
Panelist insight: On the outlook, analysts at the EIU commented:
“We expect real GDP growth to accelerate from 4.6% in 2025 to 5% in 2026, constrained initially by the impact of the US-Iran war on fuel prices and supplies, with momentum building thereafter. Average growth in 2027-30 will then pick up to 5.4% a year. Investment will be a major driver.”