Poland Exports (G&S, ann. var. %)

Exports in Poland

GDP records sharpest contraction since Q4 2020 in Q1

According to a preliminary estimate, GDP fell 0.3% year on year in the first quarter, below the 2.3% expansion logged in the fourth quarter of last year. Q1’s reading marked the worst result since Q4 2020.

Household spending plunged at the steepest rate in over two years, contracting 2.0% in the first quarter (Q4 2022: -1.1% yoy). Public consumption contracted at a more moderate pace of 0.5% in Q1 (Q4 2022: -8.7% yoy). Meanwhile, fixed investment growth edged up to 5.5% in Q1, from the 5.4% increase in the prior quarter.

On the external front, exports of goods and services growth fell to an over two-year low of 3.2% in the first quarter (Q4 2022: +3.9% yoy). In addition, imports of goods and services deteriorated, contracting 4.6% in Q1 (Q4 2022: +0.7% yoy), marking the worst performance in over two years.

On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP rebounded, expanding 3.8% in Q1, contrasting the previous quarter’s 2.3% fall. Q1’s reading marked the best result since Q1 2022.

Commenting on the release, Rafal Benecki and Piotr Poplawski, economists at ING, stated:

“As expected, the start of 2023 brought a decline in GDP on a year-on-year basis, but on a markedly smaller scale than we had feared. However, this does not mean that the outlook for the year as a whole is markedly better. High-frequency data point to weakness in retail sales, industry and housing construction in the second quarter.”