Poland GDP

Economic growth eases in the first quarter of 2026

GDP reading: Poland's GDP grew 3.5% on a year-on-year basis in Q1, following 4.1% growth in the prior quarter. In seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms, economic output grew 0.6% in Q1, following a 1.0% expansion in the previous quarter.

Drivers: Relative to the prior quarter's data, figures in Q1 softened for private consumption (+3.3% in annual terms vs +4.3% in Q4), government consumption (+6.0% vs +7.7% in Q4), fixed investment (+2.4% vs +6.6% in Q4), exports of goods and services (+5.6% vs +7.6% in Q4) and imports of goods and services (+6.1% vs +8.8% in Q4).

Panelist insight: Erste Bank analysts commented: “We have recently adjusted our 2026 GDP growth forecast from 3.8% to 3.6%, taking into account slower start of the year and the impact of uncertainty related to Iran war. An expected acceleration of investment growth in the final stage of RRF absorption should be one of the most important factors behind stronger GDP growth in the remainder of the year, especially if helped by some precautionary inventory buildup.”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Polish GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 45 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Polish GDP.

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