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Poland Interest Rate

Poland Interest Rate

NBP Reference Rate in Poland

The NBP Reference Rate ended 2022 at 6.75%, up from the 1.75% end-2021 value and above the reading of 2.50% a decade earlier. For reference, the average policy rate in Eastern Europe was 8.40% at end-2022. For more interest rate information, visit our dedicated page.

Poland Interest Rate Chart

Note: This chart displays Policy Interest Rate (%) for Poland from 2015 to 2014.
Source: National Bank of Poland.

Poland Interest Rate Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
NBP Reference Rate (%, eop) 1.50 1.50 0.10 1.75 6.75
3-Month WIBOR (%, eop) 1.72 1.71 0.21 2.54 7.02
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 2.81 2.07 1.25 3.64 6.92

National Bank of Poland maintains rates in May

At its meeting on 8–9 May, the Monetary Policy Council of the National Bank of Poland (NBP) decided to keep interest rates unchanged, with the reference rate at 5.75%, the Lombard rate at 6.25%, the deposit rate at 5.25%, the rediscount rate at 5.80%, and the discount rate at 5.85%.

The key domestic factors influencing the Central Bank's decision included the ongoing process of disinflation, driven by weak economic activity growth plus falling producer prices. Moreover, the Bank noted that core inflation eased in April.

The NBP provided no specific forward guidance on the future direction of interest rates. That said, the NBP did state that it judged current interest rates as “conducive” to meeting its inflation target; in line with this, the majority of our panelists see the Bank holding rates by year-end.

Commenting on the outlook, ING’s Adam Antoniak and Rafal Benecki stated: “We estimate that inflation is currently on an upward trend and will continue to rise until the end of the first quarter of 2025, with the rise reinforced by the unwinding of the energy price freeze. We also see the persistence of core inflation, mainly on the back of buoyant growth of services prices. In such an environment, the Council is likely to maintain a restrictive policy stance and hawkish rhetoric in the coming months. We expect NBP rates to remain unchanged until the end of 2024 and the monetary easing cycle to begin in 2025, when rates could be cut by a total of 75-100bp.”

Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Polish interest rate projections for the next ten years from a panel of 24 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable interest rate forecast available for Polish interest rate.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Polish interest rate projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Polish interest rate forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.

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