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Poland Interest Rate

Poland Interest Rate

NBP Reference Rate in Poland

The NBP Reference Rate ended 2022 at 6.75%, up from the 1.75% end-2021 value and above the reading of 2.50% a decade earlier. For reference, the average policy rate in Eastern Europe was 8.40% at end-2022. For more interest rate information, visit our dedicated page.

Poland Interest Rate Chart

Note: This chart displays Policy Interest Rate (%) for Poland from 2014 to 2023.
Source: National Bank of Poland.

Poland Interest Rate Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
NBP Reference Rate (%, eop) 1.50 1.50 0.10 1.75 6.75
3-Month WIBOR (%, eop) 1.72 1.71 0.21 2.54 7.02
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 2.81 2.07 1.25 3.64 6.92

Central Bank stands pat again in February

At its 6–7 February meeting, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) kept its key reference rate at 5.75%, as had been widely expected by markets. The NBP also left all of its other rates unchanged, with the Lombard rate remaining at 6.25%, the discount rate at 5.85%, the rediscount rate at 5.80% and the deposit rate at 5.25%.

The NBP decided to stand pat amid softening price pressures and recovering, albeit still underwhelming, economic activity. Additionally, labor market conditions remain tight. In December, inflation eased to 6.2% (November: 6.6%)—the lowest rate since September 2021. Moreover, during the same month, producer prices fell in year-on-year terms for the sixth month running. The Bank expects inflation to fall sharply in the first quarter of this year amid moderate economic activity, an appreciating zloty and the lagged effects of previous rate hikes.

In its communiqué, the NBP reiterated its commitment to base upcoming decisions on inflation and economic activity data while remaining ready to “take all necessary actions in order to ensure macroeconomic and financial stability,” including intervention in the foreign exchange market. Our panelists expect the NBP to cut interest rates this year amid receding inflation. The next monetary policy decision will be taken on 5–6 March.

Commenting on the future path of monetary policy, ING’s Rafal Benecki stated: “The Council will probably wait for the March macroeconomic projection before future decisions. In March, we will also know the preliminary estimate of CPI inflation for January, and we should learn about the Climate Ministry's plans to ‘unfreeze’ energy prices for households.”

Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Polish interest rate projections for the next ten years from a panel of 22 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable interest rate forecast available for Polish interest rate.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Polish interest rate projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Polish interest rate forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.

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