Economic growth strengthens in Q4

According to a flash release, the economy grew 1.7% on an annual basis in the fourth quarter, which was an improvement from the third quarter's 0.3% increase. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP flatlined, decelerating from the previous quarter's 1.1% increase. A detailed breakdown will be released on 29 February.

The economy should gain traction in 2024 from last year. Easing inflation and interest rates and a rebound in industrial output spurred by stronger demand from the Eurozone will underpin activity. The faster-than-expected disbursement of EU funds poses an upside risk. Additional spillover from the Russia-Ukraine war is a downside risk.

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Polish investment projections for the next ten years from a panel of 18 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable investment forecast available for Polish investment.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Polish investment projections.

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