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Poland Investment

Poland Investment

Fixed Investment in Poland

Poland's economy recorded an average growth rate of 3.5% in fixed investment over the decade to 2022, above the 2.0% average for Eastern Europe. In 2022, fixed investment growth was 4.9%. For more investment information, visit our dedicated page.

Poland Investment Chart

Note: This chart displays Investment (annual variation in %) for Poland from 2014 to 2023.
Source: Central Statistical Office Poland.

Poland Investment Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 12.6 6.2 -2.3 1.2 2.7

Annual GDP growth accelerates in Q4

Economic growth sped up in the fourth quarter, with GDP increasing 1.0% on an annual basis (Q3: +0.5% year on year). Q4's reading marked the best result since Q3 2022. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy stagnated, following the 1.1% rise recorded in the previous quarter.

Household spending weakened, dipping 0.1% yoy in the fourth quarter, which contrasted Q3’s 0.8% expansion. Meanwhile, government spending growth accelerated to 5.7% in Q4 (Q3: +3.3% yoy). Fixed investment growth accelerated to 8.7% in Q4 from 7.2% in Q3. On the external front, exports of goods and services rebounded, expanding 2.7% in Q4 (Q3: -11.0% yoy). Meanwhile, imports of goods and services declined at a softer pace of 2.8% in Q4 (Q3: -20.3% yoy).

The pace of economic growth will speed up significantly this year from 2023. Private consumption will benefit from lower inflation and interest rates, as well as rising real wages, while recovering external and domestic demand should prop up industrial activity. The faster-than-expected disbursement of EU funds poses an upside risk, while additional spillovers from the Russia-Ukraine war pose a downside risk.

Commenting on the outlook, ING’s Rafal Benecki and Adam Antoniak stated: “We remain optimistic about economic growth in 2024, and project a rebound to 3%. This is supported by a dynamic increase in real disposable income associated with lower inflation, a rise in nominal wages (a large hike in the minimum wage, and a 20-30% rise in public administration), as well as an increase in social benefits. […] The main risk to the economic outlook is underperformance of German economy, which, combined with the strong PLN and stronger price competition from Asian manufacturers, may translate into a deterioration of the foreign trade balance.”

Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Polish investment projections for the next ten years from a panel of 21 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable investment forecast available for Polish investment.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Polish investment projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Polish investment forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.

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