Myanmar Economic Forecast

The economy likely expanded at a faster pace in FY 2023 (October 2022–September 2023) than in the previous fiscal year. Business conditions in the manufacturing sector strengthened in October 2022–September 2023, following a deterioration in FY 2022. Moreover, tourist arrivals soared year on year in January-September, while merchandise exports continued to expand strongly year on year in October-July. That said, activity continued to be restrained by armed conflict, foreign currency and trade controls, energy shortages and Western-led sanctions. Turning to FY 2024 (October 2023–September 2024), the picture remains grim. In late October, the U.S. imposed sanctions on the country’s oil and gas company. Meanwhile, attacks on the military junta have escalated recently, especially along the border with China, disrupting trade.

Inflation rose to 19.5% in July 2022—the latest month for which data is available (June: 19.4%). Since then, inflation has likely continued to be driven by money printing and a weak kyat. In July, a new 20,000-kyat (USD 9.50) banknote was issued, potentially exacerbating price pressures. Average inflation is expected to ease in calendar year (CY) 2024 compared to CY 2023.