A gold building in Myanmar

Myanmar Economic Forecast

Myanmar Economic Outlook

The economy appears to have recovered in FY 2023 (October 2022–September 2023) at a faster pace than in the prior fiscal year. Business conditions in the manufacturing sector were roughly stable on average in October 2022–August 2023, after worsening in FY 2022. Furthermore, merchandise exports continued to expand robustly year on year in October-May. On the flipside, foreign direct investment flows into the country plummeted over 60% year on year in April-August. This points to a still-subdued recovery, as activity remains constrained by armed conflict, currency and trade controls, power cuts and Western-led sanctions. In a bid to ease FX shortages, in late August, the junta threatened to take legal action against unauthorized FX possession, while in mid-September, it signed a deal with Russia to pay for petroleum imports in yuan.

Myanmar Inflation

Inflation rose to 19.5% in July 2022—the latest month for which data is available (June: 19.4%). Since then, inflation has likely continued to be fueled by money printing and a weak kyat. In July, a new 20,000-kyat (USD 9.50) banknote was issued, potentially stoking price pressures. However, average inflation is expected to ease in calendar year (CY) 2023 compared to CY 2022.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Myanmar from 2013 to 2022.

Myanmar Economic Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Population (million) 52.4 52.8 53.2 53.6 53.9
GDP (USD bn) 67.1 68.7 78.9 65.1 59.4
GDP per capita (USD) 1,280 1,300 1,484 1,216 1,102
GDP (MMK bn) 92,789 105,259 112,774 97,019 110,431
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 12.2 13.4 7.1 -14.0 13.8
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 6.4 6.8 3.2 -17.9 3.0
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 0.8 0.4 1.5 - -
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -3.4 -3.9 -5.6 -11.0 -5.2
Public Debt (% of GDP) 40.4 38.8 39.3 - -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 6.9 8.8 3.8 6.2 -
Discount Rate (%, eop) 10.00 10.00 7.00 7.00 7.00
Exchange Rate (MMK per USD, eop) 1,541 1,473 1,331 1,773 2,095
Exchange Rate (MMK per USD, aop) 1,440 1,519 1,375 1,600 1,929
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -2.5 0.4 -1.6 -0.6 -
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -3.8 0.6 -2.0 -1.0 -
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -4.1 -2.8 -3.9 -1.2 -
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 11.1 10.8 9.8 9.5 -
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 15.2 13.6 13.7 10.7 -
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 13.0 -2.5 -9.2 -3.4 -
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -2.4 -10.2 0.5 -22.3 -
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 2.9 2.5 1.9 2.1 1.2
International Reserves (USD bn) 5.6 5.8 7.7 - -
International Reserves (months of imports) 4.5 5.1 6.7 - -
External Debt (USD bn) 10.7 11.2 13.4 13.9 -
External Debt (% of GDP) 16.0 16.3 17.0 21.4 -

Free Sample Report

Interested in Myanmar economic reports, analysis and data? FocusEconomics provides data, forecasts and analysis for hundreds of countries and commodities. Request your free sample report now.

Close Left Media Arrows Left Media Circles Right Media Arrows Right Media Circles Arrow Quote Wave Address Email Telephone Man in front of screen with line chart Document with bar chart and magnifying glass Application window with bar chart Target with arrow Line Chart Stopwatch Globe with arrows Document with bar chart in front of screen Bar chart with magnifying glass and dollar sign Lightbulb Document with bookmark Laptop with download icon Calendar Icon Nav Menu Arrow Arrow Right Long Icon Arrow Right Icon Chevron Right Icon Chevron Left Icon Briefcase Icon Linkedin In Icon Full Linkedin Icon Filter Facebook Linkedin Twitter Pinterest