Myanmar International Reserves (USD bn)

International Reserves in Myanmar

The economy likely recovered some ground in FY 2022 (October 2021–September 2022), and activity has seemingly strengthened so far in FY 2023. The manufacturing PMI averaged higher in FY 2022 than in the previous fiscal year, and it rose further through April. Additionally, merchandise exports surged in FY 2022 and continued to soar year on year in October-January. That said, trade and currency controls, a U.S. dollar shortage, repeated power cuts and Western-led sanctions have restrained activity. Meanwhile, the military junta recently pardoned around 2,000 prisoners, including political detainees, as a gesture of goodwill in the context of continued ASEAN attempts to start peace talks. That said, the chances of a prompt cessation of violence seem quite low, as the junta can count on continued support from China.