Latest bank decision: At its meeting on 19 February, the Central Bank agreed to lower the Official Cash Rate (OCR)...
SARB Repo Rate in South Africa
The South African Reserve Bank's policy rates from 2013 to 2022 reflected the country's economic challenges. Initially, rates were increased to combat inflation and stabilize the Rand. However, in 2020, in response to the COVID-19 economic fallout, rates were significantly reduced to historic lows to support economic growth. By 2022, as the economy began recovering and inflationary pressures emerged, the central bank started increasing rates.
The SARB Repo Rate ended 2022 at 7.00%, up from the 3.75% end-2021 value and higher than the reading of 5.00% a decade earlier. For reference, the average policy rate in Sub-Saharan Africa was 11.80% at the end of 2022. For more interest rate information, visit our dedicated page.
South Africa Interest Rate Chart
Note: This chart displays Policy Interest Rate (%) for South Africa from 2014 to 2024.
Source: Macrobond.
South Africa Interest Rate Data
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SARB Repo Rate (%, eop) | 3.50 | 3.75 | 7.00 | 8.25 | 7.75 |
| 3-Month JIBAR (%, eop) | 3.87 | 3.85 | 6.50 | 8.43 | 7.71 |
| 10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) | 9.70 | 9.82 | 11.30 | 11.33 | 10.32 |
SARB extends loosening cycle in January
Cut matches market expectations: At its first meeting of 2025 on 30 January, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) decided to reduce the repurchase rate by 25 basis points to 7.50%. The cut was the third quarter-point reduction in a row and had largely been priced in by markets. The decision was not unanimous: Two of the MPC’s six members preferred to hold rates steady.
Weak Q3 GDP data supports cut: The cut was driven by sluggish economic activity and a decline in inflation in 2024. Moreover, the 2025 inflation outlook improved: The SARB cut both its headline and core inflation forecasts by 0.1 percentage points to 3.9% and 3.8%, respectively. Meanwhile, it kept inflation forecasts for 2026 and 2027 unchanged; all six metrics hover within the SARB’s 3.0–6.0% target band, suggesting that price pressures will remain contained ahead. That said, the Bank assessed risks to the inflationary outlook to now be skewed to the upside—instead of balanced as in its last meeting.
More cuts on the table for 2025: The SARB did not provide forward guidance on the future path of interest rates. The next meeting is set for 20 March, and our panelists are split regarding the SARB’s next move: A slight majority expect it to pause its loosening cycle, while almost all of the rest anticipate another 25 basis point reduction. Overall in 2025, our Consensus is for around 75 basis points of additional cuts by the end of the year.
Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects South African interest rate projections for the next ten years from a panel of 15 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable interest rate forecast available for South African interest rate.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our South African interest rate projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of South African interest rate forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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