Ghana Interest Rate

Bank of Ghana unexpectedly holds rate in May

Bank stands pat after five successive cuts: At its meeting on 18–20 May, the Bank of Ghana (BOG) unexpectedly decided to maintain its policy rate at 14.00%. The decision came after five consecutive cuts, which slashed interest rates by a cumulative 140 basis points since July 2025.

Uncertain geopolitical backdrop and rising inflation drive decision: The Central Bank's decision reflected a cautious stance that should anchor inflation expectations while also supporting economic activity. The Iran war has stoked inflationary concerns, and price pressures increased in March for the first time in 16 months. Moreover, underlying global policy uncertainty could have potential implications for domestic economic activity.

Bank to cut ahead, but by less than previously anticipated: The Central Bank did not provide specific forward guidance. Following the outbreak of the war in Iran, our panelists have revised their year-end forecasts upward. Our Consensus is for the BOG to cut the policy rate by 100–200 basis points. One expects a 200-basis-point hike by the end of 2026, while the majority expects the Bank to cut rates less than previously anticipated. The BOG will reconvene on 22 July.

Panelist insight: Commenting on the outlook, Goldman Sachs’ Ludovica Ambrosino and Andrew Matheny stated: “Given the current geopolitical uncertainty, we have revised our inflation forecasts higher, in line with our oil forecasts, and edged growth estimates lower, in sympathy with weaker global demand. Consequently, we pushed back our forecasts for the next rate cuts in Ghana until Q3.”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Ghanaian interest rate projections for the next ten years from a panel of 8 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable interest rate forecast available for Ghanaian interest rate.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Ghanaian interest rate projections.

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