Policy Interest Rate in Peru
The policy interest rate ended 2024 at 5.00%, compared to the end-2023 value of 6.75% and the figure a decade earlier of 3.50%. It averaged 3.80% over the last decade. For more interest rate information, visit our dedicated page.
Peru Interest Rate Chart
Note: This chart displays Policy Interest Rate (%) for Peru from 2014 to 2024.
Source: Macrobond.
Peru Interest Rate Data
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Monetary Policy Rate (%, eop) | 0.25 | 2.50 | 7.50 | 6.75 | 5.00 |
Central Bank of Peru leaves rates unchanged in June
Central Bank stands pat as expected: At its meeting on 12 June, the Central Bank of Peru (BCRP) decided to maintain the reference interest rate at 4.50%, following a surprise rate cut at the previous meeting in May. The decision paused the easing cycle that delivered a cumulative 325 basis points of cuts since mid-2023. This move was in line with market expectations, which expected the BCRP to stay put and evaluate the impact of the significant monetary easing over the past months.
Central Bank holds steady as inflation cools, global risks loom: The BCRP opted to stand pat as price pressures remained within the 1.0–3.0% target in May and the inflation outlook remained favorable. Forward-looking inflation expectations over the next year were unmoved at 2.3%, squarely within the policy band. Moreover, despite losing slight momentum in May, economic activity remained broadly aligned with potential. Still, the Bank flagged rising global trade tensions and financial market turbulence: Mounting external risks could complicate the path to price stability, even as domestic indicators continue to tread stable ground.
Easing cycle close to an end: The Central Bank provided no explicit forward guidance on future interest rate moves. Roughly half of our panelists expect the BCRP to hold steady through the end of 2025, while others anticipate rate cuts ranging from 25 to 75 basis points. That said, the number of panelists expecting the Bank to stand pat has increased in recent months, suggesting the monetary easing cycle may be nearing its end. U.S. trade policy remains a key factor to watch.
Panelist insight: On the outlook, Goldman Sachs’ Santiago Tellez said: “We are adding one final 25bp rate cut to 4.25% to our baseline […]. Our base case is that this cut will be delivered in September, but we have less conviction on the timing, which will likely be constrained by the external environment. The closed output gap and a near-zero interest rate differential provide the central bank with policy flexibility, as there is less immediate pressure to address either inflationary pressures or stimulate economic growth.”
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Peruvian interest rate projections for the next ten years from a panel of 28 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable interest rate forecast available for Peruvian interest rate.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Peruvian interest rate projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Peruvian interest rate forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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