Peru Investment

Economic growth decelerates in the second quarter of 2026

GDP reading: Peru's GDP expanded 2.6% in annual terms in Q2, following a 3.6% expansion in the prior quarter. Q2's reading was the weakest since Q1 2024. Private consumption and investment were key growth drivers, the former thanks to a strong labor market and the latter due to healthy credit conditions. However, inventories and net exports were substantial drags on growth, with imports of durable consumers goods booming.

Drivers: Compared to the previous quarter's data, the reading for government consumption worsened in Q2 (+4.1% in annual terms vs +7.1% in Q1). In contrast, readings picked up for private consumption (+3.7% vs +3.6% in Q1), fixed investment (+13.7% vs +10.8% in Q1), exports of goods and services (+3.1% vs +1.2% in Q1) and imports of goods and services (+12.7% vs +11.7% in Q1).

Panelist insight: On the reading and outlook, Goldman Sachs’ Santiago Tellez said: “The sizable retrenchment in primary activities (agriculture and fishing) in May and June—along with their associated drag on seafood manufacturing—broke the hitherto solid growth momentum during 2026, though we highlight that most services activities remain robust. Going forward, our constructive outlook for copper and especially gold—the country’s main export commodities—should support terms of trade and mining activity. Household consumption will benefit from positive labor market dynamics. The previous headwinds from political uncertainty should dwindle after the resolution of the presidential election winner and rapidly improving business sentiment. The main downside risk to activity stems from the coastal El Niño.”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Peruvian investment projections for the next ten years from a panel of 24 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable investment forecast available for Peruvian investment.

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