Peru Interest Rate

Central Bank of Peru leaves rates unchanged in June

Bank holds for ninth consecutive meeting: At its meeting on 11 June, the Central Bank of Peru (BCRP) maintained the reference interest rate at 4.25%. This marked the ninth hold since September 2025.

Bank sees Iran energy price shock as soon passing: The Bank ruled out a policy rate hike as it judges that inflation will return to its 1.0–3.0% target range as oil prices normalize thanks to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, a rate cut was also deemed unnecessary, as economic activity continued to perform well through May.

Bank likely to hold this year: The Central Bank did not provide specific forward guidance. A majority of our panelists expect the Central Bank to stand pat through the end of the year, while a minority see room for hikes and a few anticipate rate cuts. The trajectory of global commodity prices and domestic inflation remains key to watch. The BCRP is scheduled to reconvene on 9 July.

Panelist insight: On the outlook, Goldman Sachs’ Santiago Tellez said: “We maintain our policy rate forecast of 4.25% for the foreseeable future, under our base case that headline and core inflation have both peaked, inflation expectations have stabilized within the target band, and global energy prices will not spike to a permanently higher level. […] We anticipate near-term energy deflationary forces on the back of declining domestic fuel parity prices, a stronger exchange rate, and the normalization of the sizable gas disruptions in Q1.”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Peruvian interest rate projections for the next ten years from a panel of 28 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable interest rate forecast available for Peruvian interest rate.

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