Macchu Picchu Peru

Peru Interest Rate

Peru Interest Rate

Monetary Policy Rate in Peru

The Monetary Policy Rate ended 2022 at 7.50%, up from the 2.50% end-2021 value and up from the reading of 4.00% a decade earlier. For reference, the average Monetary Policy Rate in Latin America was 18.90% at end-2022. For more interest rate information, visit our dedicated page.

Peru Interest Rate Chart

Note: This chart displays Policy Interest Rate (%) for Peru from 2014 to 2023.
Source: Central Reserve Bank of Peru.

Peru Interest Rate Data

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Monetary Policy Rate (%, eop) 2.75 2.25 0.25 2.50 7.50

Central Bank cuts again in May

At its 9 May meeting, the Central Bank of Peru (BCRP) cut its key policy interest rate to 5.75% from 6.00%, following April’s similar-sized cut.

The BCRP’s decision to extend its easing cycle was due to April’s moderation in price pressures. Inflation fell to 2.4% in the month from March’s 3.0%, while the Bank’s measure of core inflation dipped from 3.0% from 3.1%. Meanwhile, 12-month inflation expectations remained unchanged at 2.6%, therefore remaining comfortably within the Bank’s 1.0-3.0% target range. Moreover, the Bank expects inflation to continue its downtrend in the next few months.

The Bank did not give explicit forward guidance in its press release; it reiterated that future adjustments to the reference rate would be conditional on new information relating to inflation and its determinants. Most of our panelists see further rate cuts this year in line with a projected decline in inflation. The next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for 13 June.

Itaú Unibanco’s Andrés Pérez and Julio Ruiz are hawkish on the outlook: “Well behaved inflation amid a fragile activity recovery suggests there is still room for the BCRP to continue easing. However, increased uncertainty regarding the start of the Fed's easing cycle considering the narrowing of the BCRP-Fed rate differential limits how low the policy rate can go in the short term. Our base case is for the BCRP to keep the policy rate unchanged during the rest of year, relying on lowering the reserve requirement rate to ease financial conditions, instead. Still, we cannot rule out an additional policy rate reduction this year (risking pressure on the currency) if inflation surprises further to the downside.”

Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Peruvian interest rate projections for the next ten years from a panel of 24 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable interest rate forecast available for Peruvian interest rate.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Peruvian interest rate projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Peruvian interest rate forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.

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