Poland PMI May 2019


Poland: Manufacturing sector still in contractionary territory in May

June 3, 2019

The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), released by IHS Markit, edged down to 48.8 points in May (April: 49.0 points). The index thus remained below the 50-point threshold that separates contraction from expansion in the manufacturing sector, where it has been since November 2018.

May’s reading reflected still falling output and new orders. Both continued to be weighed down by protracted weakness in external demand—with exports contracting at a faster rate than total new orders. Moreover, inventories continued to pile up, and backlogs of work fell again, despite another drop in employment. However, firms’ production outlook remained positive. Lastly, input inflation was the slowest since October 2016, which led output prices to rise at the slowest pace in two-and-a-half years.

Commenting on the release, Trevor Balchin, Director at IHS Markit, added:

“Export demand clearly remains a drag on the sector, dropping for the tenth successive month and at a marked rate. Germany and other neighboring economies were mentioned as sources of weakness. Overall the survey data are fairly neutral, signalling neither an imminent recovery in the near term nor a sharper rate of decline.”

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect fixed investment to expand 6.0% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2020, the panel sees fixed investment expanding 4.4%.

Author: Massimo Bassetti, Economist

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Poland PMI Chart

Poland PMI May 2019

Note: Markit Poland Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index. Readings above 50 indicate an expansion in the manufacturing sector while readings below 50 indicate a contraction.
Source: IHS Markit.

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