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China PMI October 2023

China: Manufacturing and non-Manufacturing PMIs decrease in October

The National Bureau of Statistics’ Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 49.5 in October from September’s 50.2, undershooting market expectations. Consequently, the index dropped below the 50.0 no-change threshold, signaling a deterioration in manufacturing sector operating conditions from the previous month. The headline print reflected weaker readings for output, new orders and employment.

Meanwhile, the National Bureau of Statistics’ non-Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.6 in October, down from September’s 51.7 and below market expectations, amid weaker readings for new orders, exports and employment.

Taken together, the PMI data suggests a shaky start to Q4 against a backdrop of depressed sentiment, trade and tech restrictions from the West and ongoing turmoil in the property sector.

ING’s Robert Carnell said:

“[The PMI] data suggest that although it has weakened, economic growth is still ongoing. And if this initial set of data is representative of what will follow for the rest of the quarter, it should still be enough for China to hit its 5% GDP target for 2023 though on slower incremental growth in the fourth quarter of 2023.”

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