Inflation in China
Throughout 2013 to 2022, China experienced moderate inflation, typically ranging between 1% and 3%. This stability was a result of China's managed economic growth, vast manufacturing capacity and targeted government interventions. Despite global economic uncertainties, including trade tensions and the pandemic, China's inflation remained controlled, reflecting the government's ability to balance growth with price stability.
Consumer price inflation in China averaged 2.0% in the ten years to 2022. The 2022 average figure was 2.0%. For more inflation information, visit our dedicated page.
China Inflation Chart
China Inflation Data
|Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop)||2.1||2.9||2.5||0.9||2.0|
|Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop)||1.9||4.5||0.2||1.5||1.8|
|Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, eop)||0.9||-0.5||-0.4||10.3||-0.7|
|Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, aop)||3.5||-0.3||-1.8||8.1||4.2|
Consumer prices record biggest fall since July in October; producer prices decline
Consumer prices decreased 0.2% in annual terms in October, contrasting September’s flat reading and undershooting market expectations. October's result represented the largest fall in consumer prices since July, and was a sign of subdued domestic demand. Lower prices for transport and certain foodstuffs—such as pork, amid amply hog supply—weighed on the headline reading. Annual average inflation fell to 0.6% in October (September: 0.8%). Finally, consumer prices fell 0.10% from the previous month in October, contrasting September's 0.20% increase and also below market expectations. October's result marked the weakest reading since June. Meanwhile, producer prices fell 2.6% on an annual basis in October, which was a sharper fall than September's 2.5% decrease.
While consumer price inflation is forecast to return next year, price pressures will remain subdued by global standards. Moreover, persistently low price pressures could spur further monetary easing ahead.
On the monetary policy implications of the recent data, United Overseas Bank’s Ho Woei Chen said: “The weak inflation and growth backdrop lends support to the case for further monetary policy easing. We keep our call for a further 10 bps cut to the 1Y LPR and 20 bps cut to the 5Y LPR in 4Q23 to bring the rates to 3.35% and 4.00% respectively by year-end. A further cut to banks’ reserve requirement ratio is also possible to provide additional liquidity.”
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Chinese inflation projections for the next ten years from a panel of 55 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable inflation forecast available for Chinese inflation.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Chinese inflation projections.
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