China Merchandise Imports

Merchandise trade surplus increases in August

Latest reading: In August, the trade balance was USD +119.1 billion, following a USD +112.3 billion figure in the prior month and marking the second highest monthly reading on record. Over the last 12 months, the trade balance summed to USD +1204.8 billion. Merchandise exports were up 25.0% in annual terms in August, following a 23.9% rise in the prior month. IT exports were the key growth driver. Merchandise imports rose 28.2% in year-on-year terms in August, following a 27.6% increase in the previous month.

Panelist insight: Digging into the data, Nomura analysts said: “The semiconductor supercycle remains the dominant driver of both export and import growth, with price effects playing an important role. Imports of crude oil continued to contract heavily, which suggests Beijing remains cautious about resuming crude imports while prices are elevated. We expect the momentum of both import and export growth to continue in coming months.”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Chinese merchandise imports projections for the next ten years from a panel of 11 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable merchandise imports forecast available for Chinese merchandise imports.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Chinese merchandise imports projections.

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