Economic Growth in China
China's GDP growth from 2013-2022, although slower compared to previous decades, remained robust, consistently outpacing other major economies. This period saw a deliberate shift from export-led growth to a greater focus on domestic consumption and services, against a backdrop of trade tensions and environmental challenges. The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted this trajectory however, and the economy has struggled to gain momentum since.
China's economy recorded an average growth rate of 6.2% in the decade to 2022. In 2022, real GDP growth was 3.0%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
China GDP Chart
China GDP Data
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 6.0 | 2.2 | 8.4 | 3.0 | 5.2 |
GDP (USD bn) | 14,277 | 14,689 | 17,816 | 17,895 | 17,806 |
GDP (CNY bn) | 98,652 | 101,357 | 114,924 | 120,472 | 126,058 |
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | 7.3 | 2.7 | 13.4 | 4.8 | 4.6 |
GDP growth records slowest increase since Q1 2023 in the second quarter
GDP growth slowed to 4.7% on a year-on-year basis in the second quarter, down from 5.3% in the first quarter and marking worst reading since Q1 2023. On a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic growth slowed notably to 0.7% in Q2, down from the previous quarter's 1.5% increase and marking the worst reading since Q2 2022.
The services sector grew 4.2% annually in the second quarter, decelerating from the first quarter's 5.0% increase and marking the worst result since Q4 2022. In addition, the industrial sector lost steam, growing 5.6% in Q2 (Q1:+6.0% yoy). Agricultural sector growth improved moderately to 3.6% in Q2, following the 3.3% increase recorded in the previous quarter. Looking at June data, retail sales growth was underwhelming at just 2.0% year on year—well below market expectations—while industrial production growth beat expectations with a 5.3% rise. Finally, fixed investment rose 3.9% in H1 as a whole, driven by government investment in the manufacturing sector. In addition, the property sector remained downbeat: housing sales, investment and prices all tumbled in the year to June.
On the outlook, ANZ analysts said: “The weak Q2 GDP (4.7% y/y) suggests the official target of 5% for 2024 is not a done deal. As H2 2023 constituted 53% of the annual GDP in 2023, China still needs to grow 4.9% in H2 2024 to achieve the target. The q/q decline from 1.5% in Q1 2024 to 0.7% in Q2 2024 is a concern.” DBS Bank analysts said: “Weak credit demand and conservative consumption sentiment signal the need for further policy easing. Mild inflation leaves room for rate cuts. We anticipate the PBOC will cut the Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) and Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) as early as this quarter.”
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Chinese GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 60 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Chinese GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Chinese GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Chinese GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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