Nigeria Economic Data & Projections

Nigeria Economic Outlook

Africa’s largest economy:

Nigeria is the largest economy in Africa, with a GDP exceeding $500 billion, driven by its vast oil and gas reserves. However, despite its size, the country struggles with deep structural economic issues, including weak infrastructure, high inflation, and low foreign investment. Growth has been sluggish in recent years, averaging around 2-3%, barely keeping up with population expansion, which is among the fastest in the world.

Oil dependency and diversification struggles:

Nigeria’s economy remains highly dependent on oil, which accounts for over 90% of export earnings and a significant portion of government revenue. However, fluctuating oil prices and production disruptions—often due to militant attacks in the Niger Delta—have led to volatile economic performance. The government has made attempts to diversify the economy, particularly in agriculture, manufacturing, and technology, but these sectors still struggle with inadequate investment and poor infrastructure.

High inflation and currency challenges:

Nigeria’s recent economic indicators have made for dour reading. The country faces persistently high inflation, which has remained in the double digits for years, eroding consumer purchasing power. The country also grapples with currency instability, exacerbated by a dollar shortage and a complex exchange rate system. Recent moves to unify the exchange rate have led to significant depreciation of the naira, adding to inflationary pressures.

Challenges and risks:

Nigeria’s business environment is hampered by security concerns, corruption, and weak governance. The ongoing insurgency in the northeast, banditry in the northwest, and secessionist tensions in the southeast create an uncertain investment climate. Additionally, power shortages and inadequate transport infrastructure further hinder industrial growth and productivity.

Nigeria’s economic outlook:

In the medium term, Nigeria’s growth predictions remain modest, driven by the non-oil sector, including fintech and digital services. However, sustaining growth will require bold economic reforms, including fixing the foreign exchange system, improving electricity supply, and creating a more business-friendly regulatory environment. Without these changes, Nigeria risks falling further behind in Africa’s economic race.

Nigeria's Macroeconomic Analysis:

Nominal GDP of USD 188 billion in 2024.

Nominal GDP of USD 363 billion in 2023.

Nominal GDP of USD 188 billion in 2024.

GDP per capita of USD 824 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.

GDP per capita of USD 1,636 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.

GDP per capita of USD 824 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.

Average real GDP growth of 2.1% over the last decade.

Average real GDP growth of 2.3% over the last decade.

Average real GDP growth of 2.1% over the last decade.

Sector Analysis

In 2022, services accounted for 42.8% of overall GDP, manufacturing 15.4%, other industrial activity 19.1%, and agriculture 22.7%. Looking at GDP by expenditure, private consumption accounted for 62.2% of GDP in 2019, government consumption 5.1%, fixed investment 33.8%, and net exports -1.1%.

International trade

In 2023, manufactured products made up 2.8% of total merchandise exports, mineral fuels 91.6%, food 3.8%, ores and metals 1.2% and agricultural raw materials 0.4%, with other categories accounting for 0.2% of the total. In the same period, manufactured products made up 52.0% of total merchandise imports, mineral fuels 33.4%, food 10.7%, ores and metals 0.9% and agricultural raw materials 0.4%, with other goods accounting for 2.6% of the total. Total exports were worth USD 53 billion in 2024, while total imports were USD 39.80 billion.