Sub-Saharan Africa Economic Outlook
In 2025, GDP growth is seen rising to a three-year high, boosted by economic reforms, debt deals, population growth and healthier investment sentiment. Nonetheless, heightened trade uncertainty and the scheduled expiry of the U.S.’ preferential investment and trade policy for sub-Saharan Africa at end-2025 cloud the outlook.
Sub-Saharan Africa Inflation
Regional inflation fell to a five-month low in May as price pressures moderated across most large economies. Inflation should average its lowest rate since 2020 this year, curbed by prior interest rate hikes. Extreme weather events, weaker-than-anticipated domestic currencies and stronger-than-projected private spending growth pose upside risks.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Sub-Saharan Africa from 2011 to 2021.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 8.62 | 8.40 | 12.12 | 13.98 | 14.31 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -2.4 | 11.6 | 1.2 | 0.0 | - |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -1.8 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 3.7 | - |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -8.7 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 2.2 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 8.6 | 11.0 | 15.0 | 14.9 | 12.0 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -2.5 | -0.5 | 0.6 | -1.2 | - |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 24.7 | 29.2 | 28.9 | 27.3 | 27.4 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -7.0 | -5.2 | -4.7 | - | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 55.7 | 55.1 | 54.6 | - | - |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -2.3 | -0.6 | -1.7 | - | - |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 229 | 315 | 367 | 335 | - |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 217 | 268 | 323 | 303 | - |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 137 | 163 | 152 | 147 | - |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 55.8 | 48.5 | 46.0 | - | - |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 1,765 | 1,956 | 2,059 | - | - |