Serbia Economic Forecast

Serbia Economic Outlook

June 7, 2022

The pace of economic growth moderated notably in the first quarter, and the breakdown of components calls for caution regarding future growth. Fixed investment growth moderated sharply in Q1 and, while inventory build-up stimulated growth significantly, it is likely that destocking in the later stages of the year will weigh on economic activity. On the other hand, household spending growth remained upbeat, seemingly undeterred by rising price pressures. Turning to the second quarter, inflation rose further in April and is unlikely to have peaked; producer price inflation also intensified in April. More positively, merchandise exports expanded robustly in the same month. Meanwhile, political pressure on Serbia is building. While most of Europe is turning away from Russian oil and gas, the government signed a new three-year gas supply deal with Russia in late May.

Serbia Economic Growth

Economic growth will cool sharply this year, but remain healthy nonetheless. Sanctions placed upon Russia will hurt tourism and trade, denting goods and services exports. Meanwhile, higher commodity prices will stoke inflationary forces and eat into consumers’ pockets. However, solid wage growth and a tighter labor market should provide some support. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 3.5% in 2022, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.8% in 2023.

Serbia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)7.17.17.07.07.0
GDP per capita (USD)5,5875,7576,2887,2327,380
GDP per capita (EUR)5,0345,2035,5806,1306,593
GDP (USD bn)39.640.644.150.651.4
GDP (EUR bn)35.736.739.242.945.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.83.32.04.44.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)-0.51.32.03.03.2
Investment (annual variation in %)4.95.47.317.816.4
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)7.35.23.91.30.3
Unemployment Rate17.715.313.512.710.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.5-1.21.10.6-0.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)69.567.659.353.752.0
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)14.415.17.916.716.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.41.13.22.01.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.504.003.503.002.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)111.9117.298.56103.2104.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)108.8111.3107.7100.2105.3
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)121.3123.4118.3118.3117.6
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)120.7123.1121.4118.2117.8
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.5-2.9-5.2-4.8-6.9
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-1.2-1.1-2.1-2.1-3.2
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-3.6-3.1-4.0-5.1-5.6
Exports (EUR billion)11.512.814.115.116.4
Imports (EUR billion)15.115.918.120.222.0
Exports (annual variation in %)7.611.99.87.48.8
Imports (annual variation in %)2.45.513.411.89.2
International Reserves (EUR)10.410.210.011.313.4
External Debt (% of GDP)71.968.869.460.362.1

Sample Report

5 years of Serbia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.

Download

Sample Report

Get a sample report showing our regional, country and commodities data and analysis.

Download

Serbia Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield3.050.0 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate104.9-0.31 %Jan 01

Request a Trial

Start working with the reports used by the world’s major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. Click on the button below to get started.

Sign Up

Serbia Economic News

Search form