Romania Economic Outlook
June 7, 2022Flash estimates for annual GDP growth in Q1 indicate that the economy beat market expectations, growing more than twice as fast as in Q4. A breakdown of the reading is not yet available. This said, fairly upbeat retail sales and economic sentiment in the quarter suggest household spending may have held up better than expected; the lifting of Covid-19 restrictions in March likely boosted activity. Meanwhile, industrial production contracted in annual terms in Q1, plagued by supply-chain disruptions which were compounded by the war in Ukraine. Turning to Q2, the government support to households and SMEs, and resilient economic sentiment, are likely playing a losing game against conflagratory inflation and tighter monetary policy. On 24 May, the European Commission presented a report calling for Romania’s admission into the Schengen zone—which would boost long-term growth prospects.
Romania Economic GrowthIn 2022, economic expansion will be softer than in 2021. A fading base effect, the fallout from the Russia-Ukraine war, and tighter monetary policy will constrain growth prospects. However, EU-backed investments should provide some counterbalance. Decades-high inflation, new Covid-19 variants and potentially slower-than-expected absorption of EU funds pose risks. Our analysts see the economy growing 3.5% in 2022, which is up 0.7 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.7% in 2023.
Romania Economy Data
5 years of Romania economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||4.49||0.23 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||4.26||-0.34 %||Dec 31|
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Romania Economic News
Romania: Economic growth speeds up in Q3, but downward revisions take the shine off the H1 performance
November 15, 2022
According to a preliminary estimate, growth picked up in the third quarter, with GDP expanding 4.7% on an annual basis (Q2: +3.9% year on year).
November 14, 2022
Industrial output increased 1.6% in year-on-year terms in September, which contrasted August's 0.3% decrease.
November 11, 2022
Inflation eased to 15.3% in October from September’s 15.9%.
November 8, 2022
At its 8 November meeting, the National Bank of Romania (NBR) raised the policy rate to 6.75% from 6.25%.
October 12, 2022
Industrial production dropped 0.3% year on year in August (July: -0.7% yoy).