Romania Economic Outlook
January 11, 2022
A detailed breakdown confirmed that year-on-year GDP growth cooled in the third quarter, amid softer increases in both domestic and external demand. Underlying momentum seemingly remained subdued in the final quarter of last year, according to available data. Retail sales dropped in monthly terms in October amid rising Covid-19 infections, and stubbornly high inflation in November likely continued to weigh on household spending. Moreover, industrial production fell in monthly terms in October, restrained by protracted supply shortages. However, household spending could have benefited at the tail end of the quarter from the easing of restrictions in early December. Meanwhile, President Klaus Iohannis endorsed the 2022 state budget in late December, after approval from parliament. The budget projects a deficit of 5.8% of GDP for 2022 and includes a freezing of public wages and compensation for all state employees.Romania Economic Growth
GDP growth should moderate in 2022 compared to 2021, although it will remain solid amid unleashed pent-up spending, incoming EU funds and accommodative policies. That said, protracted supply disruptions, elevated inflation and the possible reinstatement of restrictions pose key downside risks. Our analysts see the economy growing 4.5% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 4.2% in 2023.Romania Economy Data
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Romania Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 4.49 | 0.23 % | Dec 31 |
| Exchange Rate | 4.26 | -0.34 % | Dec 31 |
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Romania Economic News
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Romania: Inflation hits over-decade high in December
January 14, 2022
Consumer prices increased 0.71% month-on-month in December, after flatlining in November.
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Romania: Decline in industrial output softens in November
January 14, 2022
Industrial output dropped 1.9% year-on-year in November (October: -4.7% yoy).
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Romania: NBR delivers third consecutive hike in January
January 10, 2022
At its first meeting of the year on 10 January, the National Bank of Romania (NBR) raised the policy rate to 2.00% from 1.75%, marking the third successive hike, in line with market analysts’ expectations.
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Romania: Inflation cools but remains elevated in November
December 13, 2021
Consumer prices flatlined over the prior month in November, following October’s 1.78% jump.
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Romania: Industrial falls at sharper rate in October
December 13, 2021
Industrial output declined 6.1% in annual terms in October, following September’s 3.3% and marking the worst result since July 2020.
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