Poland Economic Forecast

Poland Economic Outlook

September 6, 2016

The Polish economy grew 3.1% in annual terms in the second quarter, accelerating slightly over Q1’s 3.0% increase. The mild improvement in Q2 came on the back of stronger private consumption and robust external demand. On the downside, fixed investment contracted at a sharper pace, dragged down by the reduction in EU development funds. Data for the third quarter sent positive signals: business confidence improved in August after deteriorating in July, and the manufacturing PMI improved in the same month. On 25 August the government presented the draft budget for 2017, which foresees a fiscal deficit of 3.1% of GDP. Therefore, the country appears at risk of breaking the EU’s 3% deficit rule due to the proposed government stimulus actions, including a lower retirement age, an increase in public wages, free medicines for senior citizens and more security spending.

Poland Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)38.138.138.138.038.0
GDP per capita (EUR)9,98710,23310,37210,80211,250
GDP (EUR bn)380390395411428
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.01.71.23.33.6
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)4.2-0.5-0.74.93.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.30.80.22.63.1
Investment (annual variation in %)8.8-1.8-1.110.05.8
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)6.81.42.43.54.8
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)11.26.42.43.11.3
Unemployment Rate12.513.413.411.49.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.9-3.7-4.0-3.3-2.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)54.454.056.050.551.3
Money (annual variation in %)11.54.26.78.89.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.62.40.7-1.0-0.5
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)3.93.70.80.1-0.7
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)8.4-1.0-0.9-2.6-0.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.504.252.502.001.50
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-20.826.28.10.3-9.6
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)4.474.084.154.294.26
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)4.124.184.204.194.18
Current Account (% of GDP)-5.2-3.7-1.3-2.0-0.2
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-19.7-14.4-5.0-8.3-1.0
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-13.3-8.1-0.3-3.32.1
Exports (EUR billion)132141149159172
Imports (EUR billion)146149149162170
Exports (annual variation in %)12.2-1.69.26.3-9.5
Imports (annual variation in %)13.5-5.53.58.3-12.4
International Reserves (EUR)75.782.677.182.686.9
External Debt (% of GDP)61.373.773.365.069.2

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Poland Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield2.871.63 %Sep 28
Exchange Rate3.830.31 %Sep 28
Stock Market47,3180.08 %Sep 28

Poland Economic Growth

September 6, 2016

Poland’s economy is expected to decelerate somewhat this year, on the back of weaker fixed investment. In addition, Brexit-related spillovers on investment and exports pose downside risks to growth. The FocusEconomics panel sees GDP expanding 3.2% this year, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2017, the panel sees economic growth of 3.3%.

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