Poland Economic Forecast

Poland Economic Outlook

August 2, 2016

The Polish economy grew at the slowest pace in two years in Q1 as a sharp decline in EU development funds hit investment. The slowdown looks to have been temporary as recent data suggest that the economy regained steam at the end of the second quarter: industrial production and retail sales both accelerated in June. Meanwhile, political developments in the country are a growing concern. The government continues to clash with European officials over democratic backsliding and is at risk of losing its voting rights in the Union. On top of this, controversial and unclear policies regarding pension reform and plans to deal with USD 36 billion in Swiss-franc-dominated mortgages are worrying investors and adding to pressure on the zloty.

Poland Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)38.138.138.138.038.0
GDP per capita (EUR)9,98710,23310,37210,80211,250
GDP (EUR bn)380390395411428
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.01.71.23.33.6
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)4.2-0.5-0.74.93.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.30.80.22.63.1
Investment (annual variation in %)8.8-1.8-1.110.05.8
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)6.81.42.43.54.8
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)11.26.42.43.11.3
Unemployment Rate12.513.413.411.49.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.9-3.7-4.0-3.3-2.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)54.454.056.050.551.3
Money (annual variation in %)11.54.26.78.89.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.62.40.7-1.0-0.5
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)3.93.70.80.1-0.7
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)8.4-1.0-0.9-2.6-0.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.504.252.502.001.50
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-20.826.28.10.3-9.6
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)4.474.084.154.294.26
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)4.124.184.204.194.18
Current Account (% of GDP)-5.2-3.7-1.3-2.0-0.2
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-19.7-14.4-5.0-8.3-1.0
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-13.3-8.1-0.3-3.32.1
Exports (EUR billion)132141149159172
Imports (EUR billion)146149149162170
Exports (annual variation in %)12.2-1.69.26.3-9.5
Imports (annual variation in %)13.5-5.53.58.3-12.4
International Reserves (EUR)75.782.677.182.686.9
External Debt (% of GDP)61.373.773.365.069.2

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Poland Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield2.77-1.74 %Aug 03
Exchange Rate3.84-0.37 %Aug 03
Stock Market46,762-0.57 %Aug 03

Poland Economic Growth

August 2, 2016

Political uncertainties are weighing on Poland’s economic outlook. In addition, contagion from Brexit is expected to strain investment and export earnings. The FocusEconomics panel cut Poland’s growth outlook by 0.2 percentage points this month and now sees GDP expanding 3.3% this year. For 2017, the panel also sees economic growth of 3.3%.

Poland Economic News

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