Poland Economic Outlook
July 5, 2016Latest developments were a mixed bag for the Polish economy. GDP expanded at the slowest pace in two years in Q1 due to a collapse in fixed investment due to reduced EU funds, lackluster public spending and weakness in the external sector. While indicators from April and May suggest an uptick in Q2, political developments are worrisome. Poland did not meet the mid-June deadline to respond to the EU’s negative opinion under its rule of law procedure, which mainly criticized government actions concerning the functioning and composition of the constitutional court, and this could weigh on market sentiment. The UK’s Leave vote was also negative for sentiment. Key concerns include the appreciation of the Swiss franc, as Polish citizens own broadly USD 36 billion in Swiss franc-dominated mortgages, and a potential decline in EU funding. These concerns were reflected in the zloty depreciating to a four-month low against the euro following the Brexit vote.
Poland Economy Data
5 years of Poland economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Get a sample report showing all the data and analysis covered in our Regional, Country and Commodities reports.
|Bond Yield||2.92||-0.14 %||Jul 26|
|Exchange Rate||3.97||0.18 %||Jul 26|
|Stock Market||46,906||-0.26 %||Jul 26|
Poland Economic Growth
July 5, 2016While lower taxes and looser fiscal policy will be supportive for growth, uncertainties in the political landscape pose a downside risk. Our panelists expect the economy to expand 3.5% in 2016, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2017, the panel also sees economic growth of 3.5%.
Poland Economic News
July 25, 2016
In June, industrial production rose 6.0% over the same month last year, which was above the 3.5% growth recorded in May.
July 25, 2016
In June, retail sales rose 4.6% over the same month last year, which was above May’s 2.2% increase and marked a six-month high.
July 25, 2016
The manufacturing sector business climate index fell from 5.2 points in June to 3.1 points in July, according to the Central Statistical Office’s Business Tendency Survey (GUS-BTS).
July 11, 2016
According to the Central Statistical Office (GUS), consumer prices increased 0.2% over the previous month in June, which was above the 0.1% increase recorded in May and was broadly in line with market analysts’ expectations.
July 6, 2016
Although uncertainty has increased in the aftermath of the United Kingdom’s vote for Brexit, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) decided to keep the reference rate at the record low of 1.50% at its 5–6 July monetary policy meeting.