Poland Economic Forecast

Poland Economic Outlook

May 10, 2016

Strong domestic demand provided a cushion to the economy amid external headwinds in the final quarter of last year and allowed Poland’s economic activity to gain speed. While many of last year’s economic drivers remain in place in the first half of 2016, recent data suggest that the economy has lost some steam. Industrial production grew at the slowest pace in over one year in March and the manufacturing PMI fell in April. Meanwhile, ongoing political uncertainties continue to raise investors’ concerns. The zloty fell sharply and yields on 10-year bonds rose at the start of May as the government’s conflict with the constitutional court continues. Moreover, Moody’s will issue Poland’s credit rating on 13 May and some analysts are predicting a downgrade amid heightened political risk.

Poland Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)38.138.138.138.038.0
GDP per capita (EUR)9,98710,23310,37210,80211,250
GDP (EUR bn)380390395411428
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.01.71.23.33.6
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)4.2-0.5-0.74.93.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.30.80.22.63.1
Investment (annual variation in %)8.8-1.8-1.110.05.8
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)6.81.42.43.54.8
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)11.26.42.43.11.3
Unemployment Rate12.513.413.411.49.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.9-3.7-4.0-3.3-2.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)54.454.056.050.551.3
Money (annual variation in %)11.54.26.78.89.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.62.40.7-1.0-0.5
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)3.93.70.80.1-0.7
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)8.4-1.0-0.9-2.6-0.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.504.252.502.001.50
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-20.826.28.10.3-9.6
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)4.474.084.154.294.26
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)4.124.184.204.194.18
Current Account (% of GDP)-5.2-3.7-1.3-2.0-0.2
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-19.7-14.4-5.0-8.3-1.0
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-13.3-8.1-0.3-3.32.1
Exports (EUR billion)132141149159172
Imports (EUR billion)146149149162170
Exports (annual variation in %)12.2-1.69.26.3-9.5
Imports (annual variation in %)13.5-5.53.58.3-12.4
International Reserves (EUR)75.782.677.182.686.9
External Debt (% of GDP)61.373.773.365.069.2

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Poland Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield3.07-0.87 %May 25
Exchange Rate3.94-0.34 %May 26
Stock Market46,6950.91 %May 25

Poland Economic Growth

May 10, 2016

Despite risks from political uncertainty, Poland’s solid fundamentals should continue to propel strong growth. Our panelists expect the economy to expand 3.6% in 2016, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2017, the panel sees economic growth broadly stable at 3.5%.

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