Poland Economic Forecast

Poland Economic Outlook

September 5, 2017

The Polish economy remained perky in Q2 according to a preliminary estimate. Growth was fueled by solid gains in private consumption, which were likely driven by the sharp fall in unemployment observed since the beginning of the year. Signs remain positive heading into Q3: Retail sales chalked up another heady pace of growth in July, the manufacturing PMI remained firmly in positive territory in August and businesses stayed broadly optimistic in the same month. The economy has up until now brushed off the heightened political uncertainty caused by the raging diplomatic row between Warsaw and Brussels over the freedom of the country’s judicial system. Although in July President Andrzej Duda vetoed two laws proposed by the ruling PiS party, a third—which allows the Justice Minister to fire judges—has become law. The government is holding firm on its implementation, while the EU Commission is threatening legal action.

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Poland Facts

Bond Yield3.260.96 %Sep 18
Exchange Rate3.590.31 %Sep 18
Stock Market64,6470.17 %Sep 18

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Poland Economic Growth

September 5, 2017

The economy’s performance should remain robust this year thanks to strong consumer spending, healthy labor market dynamics and greater absorption of EU funds. Downside risks stem largely from the heated dispute between the government and the EU, which, if protracted, risks deterring foreign investment. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to grow 3.8% in 2017, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.4% in 2018.

Poland Economic News

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