Poland Economic Forecast

Poland Economic Outlook

March 7, 2017

Poland’s economy appears to be gaining momentum at the start of 2017, after GDP growth edged up at the end of 2016. A tight labor market and government stimulus measures are fueling a consumption boom, evident in double-digit growth in retail sales in January. Industrial production also accelerated strongly in the same month and business confidence rose in February, as the economy kicked into a higher gear. Meanwhile, the government continues to clash with EU officials over the rule of law. The government is refusing to implement European Commission-demanded judiciary reforms to improve the state of democracy, after a series of controversial laws last year sparked concerns. The country could lose its voting rights within the EU if the conflict persists.

Poland Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)38.138.138.138.038.0
GDP per capita (EUR)9,98710,23310,37210,80211,250
GDP (EUR bn)380390395411428
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.01.71.23.33.6
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)4.2-0.5-0.74.93.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.30.80.22.63.1
Investment (annual variation in %)8.8-1.8-1.110.05.8
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)6.81.42.43.54.8
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)11.26.42.43.11.3
Unemployment Rate12.513.413.411.49.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.9-3.7-4.0-3.3-2.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)54.454.056.050.551.3
Money (annual variation in %)11.54.26.78.89.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.62.40.7-1.0-0.5
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)3.93.70.80.1-0.7
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)8.4-1.0-0.9-2.6-0.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.504.252.502.001.50
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-20.826.28.10.3-9.6
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)4.474.084.154.294.26
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)4.124.184.204.194.18
Current Account (% of GDP)-5.2-3.7-1.3-2.0-0.2
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-19.7-14.4-5.0-8.3-1.0
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-13.3-8.1-0.3-3.32.1
Exports (EUR billion)132141149159172
Imports (EUR billion)146149149162170
Exports (annual variation in %)12.2-1.69.26.3-9.5
Imports (annual variation in %)13.5-5.53.58.3-12.4
International Reserves (EUR)75.782.677.182.686.9
External Debt (% of GDP)61.373.773.365.069.2

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Poland Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield3.58-1.00 %Mar 23
Exchange Rate3.96-0.22 %Mar 23
Stock Market59,0940.59 %Mar 23

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Poland Economic Growth

March 7, 2017

The economy is seen picking up moderately this year amid a recovery in investment and a tight labor market. The FocusEconomics panel sees growth of 3.1%, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. In 2018, the panel sees GDP expanding 3.3%.

Poland Economic News

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