Poland Economic Forecast

Poland Economic Outlook

February 7, 2017

Poland’s economy lost momentum throughout 2016 as reduced EU development funds and controversial domestic politics curtailed investment. GDP expanded at the slowest pace since 2013, despite buoyant household spending thanks to government stimulus measures and an improving labor market. Leading indicators for 2017 suggest that growth may be on the upswing, after bottoming out in Q4. The manufacturing PMI picked up and business confidence improved in January. Meanwhile, the IMF cleared an over EUR 8 billion credit line for the country on 13 January. The flexible credit line is precautionary and will provide the government with some breathing room amid an extremely uncertain global environment. U.S. monetary policy normalization, Brexit negotiations and the EU’s heavy election calendar all make Poland susceptible to a number of external shocks in the medium term.

Poland Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)38.138.138.138.038.0
GDP per capita (EUR)9,98710,23310,37210,80211,250
GDP (EUR bn)380390395411428
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.01.71.23.33.6
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)4.2-0.5-0.74.93.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.30.80.22.63.1
Investment (annual variation in %)8.8-1.8-1.110.05.8
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)6.81.42.43.54.8
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)11.26.42.43.11.3
Unemployment Rate12.513.413.411.49.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.9-3.7-4.0-3.3-2.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)54.454.056.050.551.3
Money (annual variation in %)11.54.26.78.89.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.62.40.7-1.0-0.5
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)3.93.70.80.1-0.7
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)8.4-1.0-0.9-2.6-0.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.504.252.502.001.50
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-20.826.28.10.3-9.6
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)4.474.084.154.294.26
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)4.124.184.204.194.18
Current Account (% of GDP)-5.2-3.7-1.3-2.0-0.2
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-19.7-14.4-5.0-8.3-1.0
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-13.3-8.1-0.3-3.32.1
Exports (EUR billion)132141149159172
Imports (EUR billion)146149149162170
Exports (annual variation in %)12.2-1.69.26.3-9.5
Imports (annual variation in %)13.5-5.53.58.3-12.4
International Reserves (EUR)75.782.677.182.686.9
External Debt (% of GDP)61.373.773.365.069.2

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Poland Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield3.81-0.65 %Feb 24
Exchange Rate4.090.51 %Feb 24
Stock Market58,657-1.56 %Feb 24

Poland Economic Growth

February 7, 2017

GDP growth should accelerate moderately this year but will remain subdued overall as investment recovers. The FocusEconomics panel sees growth of 3.0%, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. In 2018, the panel sees GDP expanding 3.2%.

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