Poland Economic Forecast

Poland Economic Outlook

January 10, 2017

Poland’s economy disappointed in 2016 as domestic politics, plunging investment and a weak external sector caused growth to slow sharply. Complete data for the third quarter confirm that GDP expanded at the weakest pace in three years, as reduced EU development funds caused a sharp contraction in investment. Data for the final quarter of the year suggest that the economy may have regained some steam. Industrial production rebounded in November and retail sales picked up. In addition, steady gains have been seen across the labor market and the unemployment rate rested at a multi-year low. Meanwhile, the political scene remains tense. A series of protests took place in December after the government attempted to restrict media access to parliament. While the move was eventually abandoned, the vote for the 2017 budget ended up taking place without the opposition present, sparking accusations that the government is backsliding on democracy.

Poland Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)38.138.138.138.038.0
GDP per capita (EUR)9,98710,23310,37210,80211,250
GDP (EUR bn)380390395411428
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.01.71.23.33.6
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)4.2-0.5-0.74.93.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.30.80.22.63.1
Investment (annual variation in %)8.8-1.8-1.110.05.8
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)6.81.42.43.54.8
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)11.26.42.43.11.3
Unemployment Rate12.513.413.411.49.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.9-3.7-4.0-3.3-2.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)54.454.056.050.551.3
Money (annual variation in %)11.54.26.78.89.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.62.40.7-1.0-0.5
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)3.93.70.80.1-0.7
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)8.4-1.0-0.9-2.6-0.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.504.252.502.001.50
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-20.826.28.10.3-9.6
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)4.474.084.154.294.26
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)4.124.184.204.194.18
Current Account (% of GDP)-5.2-3.7-1.3-2.0-0.2
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-19.7-14.4-5.0-8.3-1.0
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-13.3-8.1-0.3-3.32.1
Exports (EUR billion)132141149159172
Imports (EUR billion)146149149162170
Exports (annual variation in %)12.2-1.69.26.3-9.5
Imports (annual variation in %)13.5-5.53.58.3-12.4
International Reserves (EUR)75.782.677.182.686.9
External Debt (% of GDP)61.373.773.365.069.2

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Poland Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield3.70-1.10 %Jan 23
Exchange Rate4.06-0.62 %Jan 23
Stock Market53,425-0.28 %Jan 23

Poland Economic Growth

January 10, 2017

GDP growth is seen picking up slightly in 2017 amid a strong labor market and a recovery in investment. The FocusEconomics panel sees growth of 3.1%, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. In 2018, the panel sees GDP expanding 3.2%.

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