Poland Economic Forecast

Poland Economic Outlook

April 4, 2017

Activity is firming up in Poland’s economy after a slowdown in H2 2016. Business confidence hit a 19-month high in March and retail sales posted another month of solid growth in February, as consumers benefitted from government stimulus measures and a tightening labor market. In addition, investment is poised for a rebound in Q1 thanks to quicker absorption of EU funds. While the government’s stimulus measures are supporting a spending spree in the economy, they are likely to strain public finances this year and next, which will be further aggravated by a reduction in the retirement age. FocusEconomics panelists see the fiscal deficit rising close to the EU’s limit of 3.0% of GDP this year.

Poland Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)38.138.138.038.0-  
GDP per capita (EUR)10,23610,37510,80611,308-  
GDP (EUR bn)390395411430-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.71.33.33.9-  
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)-0.5-0.64.73.4-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)0.80.32.63.2-  
Investment (annual variation in %)-1.8-1.110.06.1-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.42.43.54.8-  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)6.42.43.11.3-  
Unemployment Rate13.413.411.49.7-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.7-4.1-3.4-2.6-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)53.755.750.251.1-  
Money (annual variation in %)4.26.78.89.6-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)2.40.7-1.0-0.5-  
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)3.70.80.1-0.7-  
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-1.0-0.9-2.6-0.8-  
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.252.502.001.50-  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)26.28.10.3-9.6-  
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)4.084.154.294.26-  
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)4.184.204.194.18-  
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.7-1.3-2.1-0.6-  
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-14.4-5.0-8.5-2.6-  
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-8.1-0.3-3.32.2-  
Exports (EUR billion)141149159172-  
Imports (EUR billion)149149162170-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-1.69.26.3-9.3-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-5.53.58.3-12.3-  
International Reserves (EUR)82.677.182.686.9-  
External Debt (% of GDP)73.773.265.469.2-  

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Poland Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield3.470.99 %Apr 06
Exchange Rate3.980.19 %Apr 06
Stock Market59,4060.06 %Apr 06

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Poland Economic Growth

April 4, 2017

Growth should edge up from 2016’s 2.8% on the back of a recovery in investment. The FocusEconomics panel sees growth of 3.3%, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s projection. In 2018, the panel also sees GDP expanding 3.3%.

Poland Economic News

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