Poland Economic Forecast

Poland Economic Outlook

May 9, 2017

Poland’s economy is gathering steam. A revival in investment and construction activity is supporting momentum and recent economic indicators are pointing up. Business confidence came in at the highest level in seven years in April and the manufacturing PMI pointed to improving business conditions. Moreover, accommodative fiscal and monetary policies are adding impetus to consumption and retail sales expanded nearly 10% in March. The upturn in data comes after GDP slowed in H2 2016 as plunging investment curtailed economic activity. Looking forward, while improved conditions in the labor market will continue to fuel household spending, growth is expected to wane in H2 as the effects of the Family 500+ child care benefit scheme fade.

Poland Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)38.138.138.138.038.0
GDP per capita (EUR)9,98910,23610,37510,80611,315
GDP (EUR bn)380390395411430
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.01.71.33.33.8
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)4.2-0.5-0.64.73.3
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.30.80.32.63.0
Investment (annual variation in %)8.8-1.8-1.110.06.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)6.81.42.43.54.8
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)11.26.42.43.11.3
Unemployment Rate12.513.413.411.49.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.8-3.7-4.1-3.5-2.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)54.153.755.750.251.1
Money (annual variation in %)11.54.26.78.89.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.62.40.7-1.0-0.5
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)3.93.70.80.1-0.7
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)8.4-1.0-0.9-2.6-0.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.504.252.502.001.50
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-20.826.28.10.3-9.6
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)4.474.084.154.294.26
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)4.124.184.204.194.18
Current Account (% of GDP)-5.2-3.7-1.3-2.1-0.6
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-19.7-14.4-5.0-8.5-2.6
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-13.3-8.1-0.3-3.32.2
Exports (EUR billion)132141149159172
Imports (EUR billion)146149149162170
Exports (annual variation in %)12.2-1.69.26.3-9.3
Imports (annual variation in %)13.5-5.53.58.3-12.3
International Reserves (EUR)75.782.677.182.686.9
External Debt (% of GDP)61.373.773.265.469.1

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Poland Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield3.360.33 %May 24
Exchange Rate3.73-0.88 %May 24
Stock Market60,8120.67 %May 24

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Poland Economic Growth

May 9, 2017

Recovering investment and healthy Euro area demand should fuel higher growth this year. The FocusEconomics panel sees GDP expanding 3.4%, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. In 2018, the panel also sees GDP expanding 3.4%.

Poland Economic News

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