Poland Economic Forecast

Poland Economic Outlook

July 5, 2016

Latest developments were a mixed bag for the Polish economy. GDP expanded at the slowest pace in two years in Q1 due to a collapse in fixed investment due to reduced EU funds, lackluster public spending and weakness in the external sector. While indicators from April and May suggest an uptick in Q2, political developments are worrisome. Poland did not meet the mid-June deadline to respond to the EU’s negative opinion under its rule of law procedure, which mainly criticized government actions concerning the functioning and composition of the constitutional court, and this could weigh on market sentiment. The UK’s Leave vote was also negative for sentiment. Key concerns include the appreciation of the Swiss franc, as Polish citizens own broadly USD 36 billion in Swiss franc-dominated mortgages, and a potential decline in EU funding. These concerns were reflected in the zloty depreciating to a four-month low against the euro following the Brexit vote.

Poland Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)38.138.138.138.038.0
GDP per capita (EUR)9,98710,23310,37210,80211,250
GDP (EUR bn)380390395411428
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.01.71.23.33.6
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)4.2-0.5-0.74.93.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.30.80.22.63.1
Investment (annual variation in %)8.8-1.8-1.110.05.8
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)6.81.42.43.54.8
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)11.26.42.43.11.3
Unemployment Rate12.513.413.411.49.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.9-3.7-4.0-3.3-2.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)54.454.056.050.551.3
Money (annual variation in %)11.54.26.78.89.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.62.40.7-1.0-0.5
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)3.93.70.80.1-0.7
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)8.4-1.0-0.9-2.6-0.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.504.252.502.001.50
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-20.826.28.10.3-9.6
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)4.474.084.154.294.26
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)4.124.184.204.194.18
Current Account (% of GDP)-5.2-3.7-1.3-2.0-0.2
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-19.7-14.4-5.0-8.3-1.0
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-13.3-8.1-0.3-3.32.1
Exports (EUR billion)132141149159172
Imports (EUR billion)146149149162170
Exports (annual variation in %)12.2-1.69.26.3-9.5
Imports (annual variation in %)13.5-5.53.58.3-12.4
International Reserves (EUR)75.782.677.182.686.9
External Debt (% of GDP)61.373.773.365.069.2

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Poland Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield2.92-0.14 %Jul 26
Exchange Rate3.970.18 %Jul 26
Stock Market46,906-0.26 %Jul 26

Poland Economic Growth

July 5, 2016

While lower taxes and looser fiscal policy will be supportive for growth, uncertainties in the political landscape pose a downside risk. Our panelists expect the economy to expand 3.5% in 2016, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2017, the panel also sees economic growth of 3.5%.

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