Poland Economic Forecast

Poland Economic Outlook

November 29, 2016

The Polish economy lost momentum in the third quarter as GDP expanded at the weakest pace in three years. A breakdown by components is not yet available but feeble investment likely hit growth due to lower EU development funds, despite the government’s fiscal easing measures. Leading data for Q4 point to faltering momentum: the manufacturing PMI fell to an over one-year low in October and business confidence sank to the lowest level since January. Despite lagging growth, the parliament overturned a four-year-old increase in the retirement age on 16 November. The lower retirement age will strain the government’s purse by approximately USD 2.4 billion a year starting in 2018 and could hurt labor supply.

Poland Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)38.138.138.138.038.0
GDP per capita (EUR)9,98710,23310,37210,80211,250
GDP (EUR bn)380390395411428
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.01.71.23.33.6
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)4.2-0.5-0.74.93.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.30.80.22.63.1
Investment (annual variation in %)8.8-1.8-1.110.05.8
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)6.81.42.43.54.8
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)11.26.42.43.11.3
Unemployment Rate12.513.413.411.49.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.9-3.7-4.0-3.3-2.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)54.454.056.050.551.3
Money (annual variation in %)11.54.26.78.89.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.62.40.7-1.0-0.5
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)3.93.70.80.1-0.7
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)8.4-1.0-0.9-2.6-0.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.504.252.502.001.50
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-20.826.28.10.3-9.6
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)4.474.084.154.294.26
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)4.124.184.204.194.18
Current Account (% of GDP)-5.2-3.7-1.3-2.0-0.2
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-19.7-14.4-5.0-8.3-1.0
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-13.3-8.1-0.3-3.32.1
Exports (EUR billion)132141149159172
Imports (EUR billion)146149149162170
Exports (annual variation in %)12.2-1.69.26.3-9.5
Imports (annual variation in %)13.5-5.53.58.3-12.4
International Reserves (EUR)75.782.677.182.686.9
External Debt (% of GDP)61.373.773.365.069.2

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Poland Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield3.592.46 %Nov 29
Exchange Rate4.170.0 %Nov 29
Stock Market48,199-0.07 %Nov 29

Poland Economic Growth

November 29, 2016

GDP growth is seen picking up slightly next year, after coming in at a three-year low of 2.9% in 2016. Fiscal easing measures and a rebound in investment should fuel growth of 3.2% next year, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection.

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