Poland Economic Forecast

Poland Economic Outlook

July 4, 2017

Recent economic indicators suggest that Q1’s positive momentum carried over to Q2. Industrial production grew robustly in May, fueled by a strong manufacturing sector, while retail sales growth witnessed a slight acceleration in the same month. Adding to the good news, Poland’s positive outlook, coupled with a favorable external environment, is attracting more capital inflows into local fixed income markets, which should help the zloty to appreciate against major currencies this year. Despite these positive developments, the large share of CHF-denominated mortgage loans remains a threat to the banking system.

Poland Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)38.138.138.138.038.0
GDP per capita (EUR)9,98910,23610,37510,80611,315
GDP (EUR bn)380390395411430
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.01.71.33.33.8
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)4.2-0.5-0.64.73.3
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.30.80.32.63.0
Investment (annual variation in %)8.8-1.8-1.110.06.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)6.81.42.43.54.8
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)11.26.42.43.11.3
Unemployment Rate12.513.413.411.49.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.8-3.7-4.1-3.5-2.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)54.153.755.750.251.1
Money (annual variation in %)11.54.26.78.89.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.62.40.7-1.0-0.5
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)3.93.70.80.1-0.7
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)8.4-1.0-0.9-2.6-0.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.504.252.502.001.50
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-20.826.28.10.3-9.6
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)4.474.084.154.294.26
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)4.124.184.204.194.18
Current Account (% of GDP)-5.2-3.7-1.3-2.1-0.6
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-19.7-14.4-5.0-8.5-2.6
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-13.3-8.1-0.3-3.32.2
Exports (EUR billion)132141149159172
Imports (EUR billion)146149149162170
Exports (annual variation in %)12.2-1.69.26.3-9.3
Imports (annual variation in %)13.5-5.53.58.3-12.3
International Reserves (EUR)75.782.677.182.686.9
External Debt (% of GDP)61.373.773.265.469.1

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Poland Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield3.24-1.37 %Jul 18
Exchange Rate3.64-0.66 %Jul 18
Stock Market62,332-0.33 %Jul 18

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Poland Economic Growth

July 4, 2017

A rebound in investment and stronger demand from the euro area should allow the economy to accelerate this year. The FocusEconomics panel sees GDP expanding 3.7%, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s projection. In 2018, the panel sees GDP expanding 3.4%.

Poland Economic News

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