Poland Economic Outlook
October 4, 2016Poland’s economy likely kicked into a higher gear in Q3, after recording weak growth in H1. High frequency data point to surging consumption and retail sales expanded at the fastest pace in over two years in August. Behind the rise is a tightening labor market and the government’s ‘Family 500 plus’ benefit scheme, which began providing cash injections to families in July. While government stimulus should shore up the domestic economy in the face of flagging investment, concerns over the size of the fiscal deficit are high. In September, the European Commission ordered Poland to suspend a new tax on supermarkets, which is under investigation for breaking EU rules. In addition, the revenue estimates in next year’s expansionary budget seem overly optimistic and the budget is based on a higher growth estimate than that projected by FocusEconomics.
Poland Economy Data
5 years of Poland economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||2.98||-1.33 %||Oct 19|
|Exchange Rate||3.93||-0.03 %||Oct 19|
|Stock Market||47,876||0.93 %||Oct 19|
Poland Economic Growth
October 4, 2016A reduced drawdown of EU development funds will hamper investment and Poland’s economy is expected to decelerate somewhat this year. The FocusEconomics panel sees GDP expanding 3.1% this year, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2017, the panel sees economic growth inching up to 3.3%.
Poland Economic News
October 12, 2016
According to the Central Statistical Office (GUS), consumer prices recorded flat growth over the previous month in September, which followed the 0.2% decrease recorded in August.
October 5, 2016
As anticipated by market analysts, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) decided to keep the reference rate at the record low of 1.50% at its 4–5 October monetary policy meeting.
October 3, 2016
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose from August’s 51.5 to a six-month high of 52.2 in September, according to IHS Markit.
September 30, 2016
According to a preliminary estimate released by the Central Statistical Office (GUS) on 30 September, consumer prices recorded flat growth over the previous month in September, which followed the 0.2% fall recorded in August. In annual terms, consumer prices dropped 0.5% in September, which was a less pronounced decline than the 0.8% fall recorded in August.
September 30, 2016
The manufacturing sector business climate index decreased from 4.8 points in August to 3.3 points in September, according to the Central Statistical Office’s Business Tendency Survey (GUS-BTS).