Exports in Malaysia
The economy of Malaysia recorded an average exports growth rate of 4.1% in the decade to 2022. In 2022, the exports growth rate was 14.5%. For more exports information, visit our dedicated page.
Malaysia Exports Chart
Note: This chart displays Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) for Malaysia from 2017 to 2024.
Source: Macrobond.
Malaysia Exports Data
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) | -8.6 | 18.5 | 14.5 | -8.1 | 8.5 |
GDP growth continues to cool in Q1 2025
Q1 marks the third consecutive deceleration: Advanced estimates show that GDP growth moderated to 4.4% year on year in the first quarter of 2025, down from 5.0% in the fourth quarter. The result was below market expectations, and marked the slowest growth rate in a year as well as the third consecutive quarter of cooling economic activity.
Broad-based slowdown outweighs agricultural sector improvement: Preliminary data shows that weaker growth in the mining and construction sectors were the main drags on activity in Q1. Mining and quarrying recorded a sharp drop in Q1, shrinking 4.9% after a 0.9% fall in Q4 as crude and natural gas production declined. Moreover, growth in the construction sector softened, despite remaining robust at 14.5% (Q4: +20.7% yoy). The services and manufacturing remained relatively stable compared to the previous quarter, as services rose at a softer 5.2% (Q4: 5.5% yoy) and manufacturing growth softened from 4.4% in Q4 to 4.2% in Q1. More positively, the agricultural sector rebounded, recording 0.7% growth in Q1 compared to Q4’s 0.5% decline.
2025 to record softer growth: Our Consensus is for economic growth to moderate in the coming quarters before ending the year with a bang, coming in with the highest rate of 2025 in Q4. However, annual growth over the year as a whole is expected to come in below 2024’s figure. Rising global tariffs will cap economic growth by limiting exports and hindering spending and investment as a result of weaker business and consumer confidence. Interest rate cuts are an upside risk, while sharper-than-expected fiscal consolidation is a downside risk.
Panelist insight: United Overseas Bank’s Julia Goh and Loke Siew Ting commented on the outlook: “Beyond 1Q25, Malaysia’s growth outlook will be contested by the impact of intensifying global trade war, risks of a hard landing in major economies, and greater financial volatility amid ongoing domestic fiscal reform agenda. […] Our base case remains that there is no outright recession, Malaysia’s inflationary pressure will be contained, and domestic financial stability is preserved despite volatile global markets. This allows Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) to keep a wait-and-see approach, leaving the overnight policy rate (OPR) unchanged at 3.00% for now.”
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Malaysian exports projections for the next ten years from a panel of 17 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable exports forecast available for Malaysian exports.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Malaysian exports projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Malaysian exports forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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