Costa Rica Economic Forecast

Costa Rica Economic Outlook

November 9, 2021

After GDP grew at the fastest rate in 23 years in Q2, high-frequency indicators hint at a continued recovery though the third quarter. Economic activity grew at a strong pace in July–August, gaining steam from Q2’s average amid a surge in the construction sector. Moreover, both merchandise exports and imports grew at faster rates on average in July–September compared to Q2. Turning to Q4, thanks to a swift vaccination campaign and a dramatic fall in the number of new Covid-19 cases, authorities recently opted to ease mobility-related restrictions from 1 November and business-related restrictions from 1 December. Among the most important changes, businesses that require proof of vaccination may begin to operate at full capacity. Regardless, starting from 8 January 2022, all firms must require vaccine certificates.

Costa Rica Economic Growth

In 2022, GDP is expected to grow at a healthy albeit more moderate pace as the base effect subsides and activity returns somewhat to normal. Fixed investment is projected to expand at a robust rate, spearheading overall growth. Risks to the outlook persist due to lingering uncertainty over the evolution of the pandemic and the spread of new Covid-19 variants. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 3.4% in 2022, which unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.0% in 2023.

Costa Rica Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)4.94.95.05.05.1
GDP per capita (USD)11,29211,65911,76912,05412,171
GDP (USD bn)54.857.258.460.561.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.64.23.92.72.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.23.63.51.72.2
Investment (annual variation in %)3.04.8-2.53.0-6.4
Unemployment Rate9.69.59.312.012.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.7-5.2-6.1-5.8-7.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)41.045.148.453.258.5
Money (annual variation in %)6.12.1-1.0-0.46.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-0.80.82.62.01.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)0.80.01.62.22.1
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)5.954.455.956.005.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)537.3553.2571.4604.5571.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)534.6544.0567.9577.2586.9
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.5-2.2-3.4-3.3-2.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.9-1.3-2.0-2.0-1.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)-5.5-5.3-5.3-5.3-4.7
Exports (USD billion)9.29.910.611.311.5
Imports (USD billion)14.715.215.916.616.1
Exports (annual variation in %)0.77.96.96.11.8
Imports (annual variation in %)-5.23.34.44.2-2.8
International Reserves (USD)7.87.67.17.58.9
External Debt (% of GDP)43.144.746.447.949.7

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Costa Rica Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate571.0-0.57 %Jan 01

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