Costa Rica Economic Forecast

Costa Rica Economic Outlook

June 14, 2022

Growth in Q1 2022 likely slowed from 2021’s rally. Economic activity contracted in every month of Q1 2022 in seasonally-adjusted month-on-month terms due to rising inflation, interest rate hikes and the country’s worst Covid-19 wave to date. This trend should be lasting in Q2: The positive impact of rising commodity prices on the key exports sector is likely being outweighed by scorching inflation, steeper production costs and even tighter monetary policy. Still, a rebound in tourism and a region-leading vaccination scheme will be supporting activity. On 9 May, President Chaves declared a state of emergency after a Russia-based group of cyber attackers struck key government institutions, including the Ministry of Finance. The attacks have likely led to several million dollars in lost output already. In the longer term, the risk of future breaches may deter foreign investment and trade.

Costa Rica Economic Growth

In 2022, the economy should grow slower than in 2021 and below pre-pandemic averages. Economic slowdown among major trading partners will likely weaken investment and trade, while higher inflation will erode private spending. New Covid-19 variants, a fragmented parliament and sharp monetary tightening at home and in the U.S. further cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 3.5% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.1% in 2023.

Costa Rica Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)4.94.95.05.05.1
GDP per capita (USD)11,29211,65911,76912,05412,171
GDP (USD bn)54.857.258.460.561.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.64.23.92.72.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.23.63.51.72.2
Investment (annual variation in %)3.04.8-2.53.0-6.4
Unemployment Rate9.69.59.312.012.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.7-5.2-6.1-5.8-7.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)41.045.148.453.258.5
Money (annual variation in %)6.12.1-1.0-0.46.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-0.80.82.62.01.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)0.80.01.62.22.1
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)5.954.455.956.005.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)537.3553.2571.4604.5571.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)534.6544.0567.9577.2586.9
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.5-2.2-3.4-3.3-2.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.9-1.3-2.0-2.0-1.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)-5.5-5.3-5.3-5.3-4.7
Exports (USD billion)9.29.910.611.311.5
Imports (USD billion)14.715.215.916.616.1
Exports (annual variation in %)0.77.96.96.11.8
Imports (annual variation in %)-5.23.34.44.2-2.8
International Reserves (USD)7.87.67.17.58.9
External Debt (% of GDP)43.144.746.447.949.7

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Costa Rica Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate571.0-0.57 %Jan 01

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