Costa Rica Private consumption

Economic growth ebbs in the second quarter of 2026

GDP growth slows to over five-year low: According to a flash estimate, Costa Rica's GDP grew 2.7% on a year-on-year basis in Q2, following 3.8% growth in the prior quarter. Q2's reading was the weakest since Q1 2021. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic output increased 1.2% in Q2, following 0.1% growth in the previous quarter.

Decelerations in private spending, fixed investment and exports cap overall growth: Compared with the previous quarter's data, figures in Q2 softened for private consumption (+2.3% on a year-on-year basis vs +3.7% in Q1), fixed investment (+6.3% vs +8.8% in Q1) and exports of goods and services (+1.1% vs +4.4% in Q1). In contrast, readings picked up for government consumption (+3.3% vs +3.0% in Q1) and imports of goods and services (+3.7% vs +0.5% in Q1). A near record-strong colón, weaker external demand and a persistent decline in consumer prices eroding business margins weighed on fixed investment and export growth during the quarter. In turn, weaker production growth and slower tourist arrivals likely underpinned the deceleration in private consumption via higher unemployment and potentially weaker wage gains.

GDP to accelerate in the remainder of 2026: Looking ahead, GDP growth should accelerate somewhat from Q2 through year-end, supported by recent monetary policy easing, though overall growth in 2026 is still expected to be the softest in six years. Public consumption is projected to decelerate amid fiscal consolidation, while rising unemployment and slowing remittance inflows will temper private spending gains. Moreover, export growth is forecast to slow to a six-year low this year, dampened by a strong colón as well as the broader impact on global trade from U.S. tariffs and the Iran energy shock. Even so, export growth, alongside fixed investment growth, should remain among the strongest in Central America, thanks to Costa Rica’s robust medical device manufacturing.

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Costa Rican private consumption projections for the next ten years from a panel of 9 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable private consumption forecast available for Costa Rican private consumption.

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