Central Bank leaves rates unchanged in December

Central Bank pauses monetary easing cycle: At its meeting on 19 December, the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) decided to maintain the policy rate at 4.00%. The decision followed October’s 25 basis point cut.

Sturdy economy and greater uncertainty drive the hold: The Bank highlighted that the economy is growing at a faster-than-anticipated pace and added that labor market metrics continue to improve, approaching pre-pandemic levels. Moreover, the Bank said that uncertainty regarding the domestic and international economic and inflation outlooks has risen, calling for a pause in the monetary policy easing cycle.

Central Bank grows more hawkish: The BCCR’s guidance became more hawkish, as the Bank no longer stated that it sees space to continue reducing its policy rate. Instead, it emphasized a cautious approach to future adjustments based on macroeconomic conditions and risk assessments. Our Consensus is for the Bank to reduce its policy rate by 25 basis points by the end of 2025, though our panel is highly divided: While around half of our panelists have penciled in cuts, most of the rest expect the Bank to hold throughout the year. The next meeting is scheduled for 23 January.

Panelist insight: Analysts at the EIU commented: “We had expected the BCCR to cut the policy rate in December and for it to do so three more times in the first half of 2025, so that the rate would have stood at the terminal rate of 3% by end-June. This will clearly no longer happen. Instead, we now think that it will keep the rate on hold at its January, March and April meetings, before making cuts in June and July, once it becomes clear that inflation remains subdued and the economy is continuing to slow. We now expect the terminal rate to be 3.5%.”

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