Costa Rica Interest Rate

Central Bank cuts rates in July

BCCR makes first policy rate adjustment of 2026: At its meeting on 23 July, the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) cut the policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.00%. The cut was the first since December last year, ending an extended pause.

Consumer prices keep falling despite Iran supply shock: The Iran war has pushed up global prices for energy, fertilizers and some foods, a factor which had underpinned the BCCR’s prior caution. However, the Bank finally cut in July as consumer prices in Costa Rica kept falling through June, and core inflation has remained largely stagnant since February. This prolonged decline in consumer prices has pushed down industrial production growth by weighing on firms’ margins, in turn further hitting economic activity by weighing on employment and thus workers’ incomes. Additionally, short- and medium-term inflation expectations have remained below the BCCR’s 2.0–4.0% target.

BCCR likely to stand pat in the remainder of 2026: The Central Bank did not provide specific forward guidance on future interest rate changes. Our Consensus is for the BCCR to stand pat rather than easing further in what is left of 2026, as most of our panelists expect inflation and economic growth to pick up in H2 2026. The next monetary policy decision will be announced on 24 September.

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Costa Rican interest rate projections for the next ten years from a panel of 5 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable interest rate forecast available for Costa Rican interest rate.

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